Power in the Islamic republic has become increasingly concentrated in recent years.
Paris:
The death in a helicopter crash of President Ebrahim Raisi, seen as a possible successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shuffled the cards in the succession process and increased the spotlight on the son of Iranian number one, Mojtaba, as a candidate.
Although analysts emphasize that it is impossible to know with certainty the intentions of Iran’s leadership, Raisi’s track record as a pillar of the Islamic republic over several decades made him an inevitable candidate to become its third supreme leader, after Khamenei and revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The supreme leader serves for life after being appointed by the Assembly of Experts body and has the final say on all important matters, including foreign policy. Khamenei, 85, has held the position since Khomeini’s death in 1989.
Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based think tank Center for the Middle East and Global Order, said it was “very difficult to say” whether Raisi was seen as a successor, but noted that Khamenei “catapulted his long-time confidant date for important positions.”
These included the head of the judiciary and the presidency, indicating “the desire to provide him with the type of profile that would facilitate his rise to supreme leadership”, he told AFP.
“In Iran’s opaque political environment, only a few at the top know how likely it is that Raisi will become the next supreme leader,” analysts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati of the International Crisis Group added in a study.
“But if he got the job, his death would put a big question mark on the succession.”
– ‘Reshuffled cards’ –
In addition to Raisi, the other widely publicized candidate was Khamenei’s 54-year-old son Mojtaba, a shadowy figure rarely seen in public but hugely influential behind the scenes and sanctioned by the United States.
“Khamenei has long wanted to position his son Mojtaba as his successor,” Fathollah-Nejad said, describing Mojtaba Khamenei as “a central actor in the shadows.”
He emphasized that even within the Iranian leadership there were concerns about “dynastic rule,” given the way it was so vehemently rejected by the Islamic revolutionaries who ousted the last shah.
“Now, however, with Raisi’s death, the cards regarding Khamenei’s succession have been shuffled. As a result, the focus of attention now shifts to Mojtaba,” he said.
Maintaining a low public profile, rarely mentioned in media reports and without any official title, Mojtaba Khamenei is considered by observers to be second in command in the supreme leader’s office, behind former chief guardian Mohammad Golpayegani.
One of the few official insights into his importance came in November 2019, when the US Treasury announced sanctions against Mojtaba Khamenei, saying that Ali Khamenei had “delegated some of his leadership responsibilities” to his son.
Raisi’s death “would reshape the looming succession process,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, adding that Raisi has emerged in recent years as “one of the leading candidates” to succeed Khamenei.
Maloney said Mojtaba Khamenei was “the most prominent candidate” other than Raisi and a figure who wielded “considerable power behind the scenes.” But there were also questions about her religious credentials as well as her hereditary rule, she added.
Analysts do not exclude that another name may emerge as a potential supreme leader, with some attention focusing on Ali Reza Arafi, a cleric who is a member of both the Assembly of Experts and the supervisory body of the Council of Guardians.
– ‘Renewed popular protests’ –
Ensuring stability and continuity will be the number one priority for the leadership, especially after the 2022 nationwide protests that exposed popular frustrations among young people over social restrictions in the Islamic republic, especially for women.
Power in the Islamic republic has, in recent years, become increasingly concentrated in the hands of conservatives, a trend confirmed by this year’s parliamentary elections, which saw the lowest turnout ever in a legislative vote in Iran.
Although the president’s powers are limited, Raisi’s death still came as a shock – he is only the second president of Iran to die in office, after Mohammad Ali Rajai, who was killed in a bomb attack in 1981, after less than a year. month in office.
Fathollah-Nejad said that in the wake of the 2022 protests and a deepening economic crisis in the face of Western sanctions, the transition of power to a new supreme leader would represent a risky period for authorities.
“If Khamenei dies and/or if Mojtaba is declared his successor, a renewal of popular protests against the regime would not be unlikely,” he said.
“The big question is whether in such a scenario of power vacuum or contested succession decision, we would see fissures in the power and security apparatus that could open the window for unexpected events,” he added.
(Except the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
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