CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — South African president Cyril Ramaphosa faces the prospect of the worst electoral result ever from his ruling party. However, he is still likely to be re-elected as leader of Africa’s most advanced country, after National vote on Wednesday.
Although several polls show support for his African National Congress is below 50% before the electionputting you at risk of losing your majority for the first time In South Africa’s 30 years of democracy, the ANC is still expected to win the most seats in Parliament. The growing opposition to the ANC is divided between several parties.
This will probably mean Ramaphosa stays for a second and final five-year term, although it may not be simple. Parliament decides who is president and the ANC may not have a majority of lawmakers. Furthermore, a sharp drop in votes for the ANC would put Ramaphosa under pressure within the party ranks. The ANC has a history of withdrawing support for his party leader in difficult times, resulting in his resignation as president.
Here’s a look at 71-year-old Ramaphosa and his future.
MANDELA’S PROTECTION
Ramaphosa was seen as a protégé of Nelson Mandela, who led the ANC to victory in the important election of 1994 which ended the apartheid system of white minority rule and established South Africa as a democracy. Ramaphosa lost the ANC’s internal battle to succeed Mandela as president when the aging anti-apartheid icon stepped down after one term in 1999 – although Mandela was thought to favor Ramaphosa.
Instead, Ramaphosa left politics to become one of South Africa’s richest businessmen.
BACK TO POLITICS
Ramaphosa returned to politics when he was elected vice-president of the ANC in 2012. He was appointed vice-president of the country in 2014 under the command former president Jacob Zuma. Using the same internal party machine that had previously ignored him, he won the leadership of the ANC in 2017. Zuma stepped down as president of South Africa two months later, under a cloud of corruption accusations, and Ramaphosa took power. He was elected to his first effective term in 2019.
He promised end corruption which plagued the ANC during the Zuma administration and boosted a struggling economy and failures in government services, although this was not easy. South Africa still has one of the the highest unemployment rates in the world, and electricity blackouts across the country in 2022 and 2023, due to the mismanagement of the state-owned utility, it seriously damaged Ramaphosa’s reputation.
PARLIAMENT DECISION
Lawmakers in Parliament decide on South Africa’s president and this election could bring something new to that process. South Africans vote in national party elections and these parties send legislators to the 400-member Parliament according to their vote percentage. Lawmakers then elect the president.
All South African presidents since 1994 have belonged to the ANC due to its parliamentary majority, but if this falls below 50% in these elections, it will be necessary for another party or parties to vote with him to obtain the necessary numbers in Parliament to re-elect Ramapohosa.
FUTURE AS PRESIDENT
There are three possible scenarios for Ramaphosa:
If the ANC maintains its majority against expectations, he will likely be re-elected without any problems by his party’s lawmakers. The ANC won 57.5% of the vote in the last national elections in 2019, leading to Ramaphosa’s first term in office.
If the ANC falls slightly below 50%, it could seek a coalition with several smaller parties to obtain the necessary votes in Parliament for Ramaphosa to remain president.
If the ANC percentage is well below 50% and close to 40%, it is more complicated. The ANC may have to approach one of the the largest opposition parties for a coalition and that would involve a lot more disputes. A significant drop in support would also affect Ramaphosa’s authority within the ANC.
It is notable that no South African president since 1994 has served the full two terms. Mandela came down to hand over the reins, and Thabo Mbeki and Zuma both resigned before the end of their term due to loss of support within the ANC.
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