South Africa’s election results may only be the start of a rocky political process. Here’s why

Cape Town, South Africa — The real politicking in South Africa may begin after the final results of this week’s election are announced, as the country faces the possibility of no outright winner.

Early results on Thursday showed the ruling African National Congress was well short of 50% of the national vote as counting continued, reinforcing pre-election analysis that the party that has dominated South African politics for 30 years could lose its absolute majority in the coming days.

While some opposition parties will proclaim this as a victory for change, it is unclear how change would ultimately materialize if the ANC lost its majority.

The ANC is still far ahead of its next rival in the partial results. Even in the worst-case scenario, the ANC would comfortably win the most votes. But without a majority you would probably need a coalition to form a government and (in the first task after the election) elect a president.

There has been little indication of who the ANC might partner with. That means that, as South Africa sees a historic moment, complications lie ahead if the ANC remains below 50%.

The election of the head of state is the first priority after the elections. South Africans vote for parties in national elections and not directly for their president. Elections decide how many seats each party gets in Parliament. Lawmakers then choose the president in a vote after the election.

As the ANC has had a clear majority in the 400-member Parliament since apartheid ended in 1994, the process of electing its leader as president has been simple.

This year could be very different. Without a majority of lawmakers, the ANC would have to find parties to vote with it in Parliament to reach the magic number of 201 and re-elect President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second and final five-year term.

Again, if the ANC does not have a majority in Parliament, it would need that agreement or coalition to also form a government. This has long-term implications, as any coalition would effectively decide whether laws are passed and the government is in a position to put policies into action.

Without an agreement, the ANC would not be able to govern or, in this case, co-govern.

The schedule is established for what needs to happen and when it needs to happen. National election results must be announced within seven days of polls closing on Wednesday. The independent electoral commission that runs the elections says the results will be announced on Sunday, within the established deadline. From the moment the results are announced, the new Parliament has 14 days to meet in its first session and elect a president.

That period between the announcement of the results and the Parliament session is expected to involve a series of negotiations between the parties to see what can be resolved. No one knows who the ANC might strike a deal with, given how little the party has said about coalitions.

It will also depend on how far the ANC is from a majority, if it ends up falling short in the final results. If you need only a small percentage to get over 50, you could approach smaller matches. Some have already said they will not work with the ANC.

If you are further from the majority, you would probably need to talk to one of the two largest opposition parties. The centrist Democratic Alliance is the second largest party behind the ANC and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, the third. They have markedly different ideologies and could take the ANC in very different directions.

“All bets are off in this election,” said Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen. “We are heading towards a coalition country.”

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