SINGAPORE — Government leaders, defense officials and diplomats from around the world will gather in Singapore for Asia’s premier security forum this weekend, at a time of growing tension and competition for influence between the United States and China in the Indus region. -Peaceful.
In recent years, Beijing has been rapidly expanding its navy and becoming increasingly assertive in pressing its claim over virtually the entire South China Sea, leading to an increasing number of direct conflicts with other countries in the region, especially the Philippines and Vietnam. .
Meanwhile, the United States has been stepping up military exercises in the region with its allies to underscore its “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept, intended to emphasize freedom of navigation through disputed waters, including the Strait of Taiwan. China also claims the democratic, autonomous island of Taiwan and has said it would not rule out using force to take it.
Since escalating territorial hostilities with China last year in the South China Sea, the administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has moved to forge new security alliances with several Asian and Western countries and allowed a U.S. military presence in more Philippine bases during a 2014 defense pact.
Marcos opens this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, with a keynote address on Friday.
This week, Marcos already expressed concern about a new law issued by China that gives its coast guard license to confiscate foreign ships “that illegally enter China’s territorial waters” and detain foreign crews for up to 60 days. The same law also made a new reference to 2021 legislation that says China’s coast guard can fire on foreign ships if necessary.
Now that Philippine ships regularly clash with Chinese ones, there are concerns that a low-level confrontation could lead to escalation, said Eugene Tan, a professor of international law at Singapore Management University.
“I don’t think these countries are really looking to go to war with each other, but the concern with these skirmishes is that sometimes, when a miscalculation is made, things could deteriorate quickly and lead to the use of force,” said.
“And I think the last thing that countries in the region would want, especially as they focus on post-pandemic recovery, would be to have a regional conflict on the horizon.”
This year’s conference comes just a week after China held massive military exercises around Taiwan, staging a mock blockade of the island after it inaugurated a new government that refuses to accept Beijing’s insistence that the island is part of China.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary.
The United States, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but is required by its own laws to provide the island with the means to defend itself. The United States called China’s military exercises “reckless.”
Bilateral contact between the US and Chinese militaries was broken in 2022 after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, angering Beijing.
That has been slowly restored in recent months, and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who are attending the Shangri-La dialogue, were expected to meet Friday even before the forum will begin.
It will be the first face-to-face meeting that both have held since direct conversations were interrupted, although they had previously spoken by phone.
Tan said he did not expect any progress from the talks, but it was important for the two to be in direct contact to “reduce the temperature” between the two countries.
“We would probably be expecting too much from the Shangri-La dialogue to expect any kind of concrete progress,” he said. “The Shangri-La dialogue is really providing the opportunity to take very gradual steps in building trust.”
Austin is scheduled to address the forum on Saturday morning, while Dong will address the final day on Sunday.
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AP journalist Syawalludin Zain contributed to this article.
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