BERLIN — An unpopular government with a reputation for constant infighting. An economy stuck in routine. A strong far-right party that has been embarrassed by its main candidate and alienated its European allies. And a majority opposition that continues working on its recovery.
German politics is in a discontented and volatile state as the country’s voters prepare to fill 96 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament on June 9, the largest single national contingent in the 27-nation European Union.
It is the first nationwide vote since center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz took power in late 2021, ending the 16-year reign of center-right predecessor Angela Merkel. His era was marked by often consensual politics and a series of “grand coalition” governments between the main traditional parties of the right and left.
That comfort, already tested during Merkel’s time by a series of crises and the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has well and truly ended.
“These European elections are taking place in the context of an economic crisis, but also a government crisis, because the government… really has very low popularity ratings,” said Johannes Hillje, a Berlin-based political consultant. Voters are likely to use the vote to express their discontent, he added.
Scholz says that “trust is… the best remedy against extremism” in turbulent times. But his government has not generated much trust.
The coalition of the Social Democrats with the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats has achievements to its name. These include avoiding an energy crisis after Russia cut off its gas supplies to Germany, extensive aid to Ukraine (although the details of that have caused friction), and a series of socially liberal reforms.
But the overwhelming impression from a government set out to modernize Germany has been one of constant discord as the economy, Europe’s largest, struggles to generate growth.
Coalition infighting has not taken a break for the elections. The partners are discussing how to draw up a 2025 budget while respecting Germany’s strict self-imposed rules on rising debt. That dilemma has already forced a hasty court-ordered review of the 2024 budget, complete with subsidy cuts that sparked protests from farmers.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz told parliament earlier this year that the government is “ruling against the majority of voters and the population of Germany.” He lamented that the atmosphere was “full of doubts and uncertainty.”
Merz has sought to give his party, once led by centrist Merkel, a stronger conservative profile since taking power after its 2021 election defeat.
His Union bloc has benefited only partially from the unpopularity of Scholz and his coalition; While polls have given him a clear lead, he is struggling to gain support beyond the unspectacular 30% of the vote. There are questions about how much Merz, 68, a former Merkel rival with no government experience, appeals to voters.
It is still unclear who will challenge Scholz in national elections scheduled for fall 2025. The Union plans to decide after three state elections in September in Germany’s former communist east.
The European Parliament vote and state votes in three strongholds will test the AfD, which fed on widespread discontent to gain more than 20% support for a time.
A series of recent setbacks appear to have pushed him down a bit. First came a media report in January that extremists had met to discuss the deportation of millions of immigrants, including some with German citizenship, and that some party figures attended. The report sparked mass protests against the rise of the far right.
Last month, an aide to Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s leading candidate in the European elections, was arrested on suspicion of spying for China. His second candidate, Petr Bystron, faces an investigation after denying allegations that he may have received money from a pro-Russian network. The party has already faced criticism for having pro-Russia positions.
The AfD later banned Krah from making campaign appearances after he told an Italian newspaper that not all members of the Nazis’ elite SS unit were war criminals. That was not enough to prevent the party from being expelled from the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament.
Separately, a court ruled that one of the AfD’s best-known figures, Björn Höcke, knowingly used a Nazi slogan in a 2021 speech and fined him.
“Instead of being able to speak about his own position, every week he has to comment on scandals and accusations in the media,” Hillje said. AfD’s strong core voters will not be discouraged, but “those who are not entirely sure whether they should vote for AfD might reconsider as a result of these scandals and accusations.”
The AfD still looks set to make gains from the 11% of the votes it won in the 2019 European Parliament elections, although perhaps not as many as it had hoped.
Some observers believe that a new party founded by prominent opposition politician Sahra Wagenknecht, which combines left-wing economic policy with a restrictive approach to migration and other positions with potential appeal to some AfD voters, could dent her support.
Around 60.9 million German citizens have the right to vote, along with 4.1 million residents of other EU countries who can decide whether to vote in Germany or in their home country.
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Kerstin Sopke contributed to this report.
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