The African National Congress (ANC), which governs South Africa, appears poised to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory at the end of the racist apartheid system in 1994.
It would herald the end of the party’s decades-long dominance of South African politics, raise questions about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and usher in an era of coalition politics.
Here are three factors that explain how South Africa got here, why and what the future holds.
1) Behind the ANC’s free fall
The ANC was once a revered liberation movement etched in the hearts of South Africans, but after three decades in power it has become synonymous with corruption and bad governance.
As a result, it was punished in Wednesday’s elections, especially by young people who turned out in large numbers to vote against the party – something they never did in previous elections.
“They are fed up with corruption and are the most affected by unemployment. They turned against the ANC,” said William Gumede, president of the non-profit organization Democracy Works Foundation.
It marks a generational divide in South Africa – his parents are still loyal to the ANC, as they lived during apartheid and know first-hand the rich history of the ANC as a liberation movement that freed black people from the chains of apartheid.
But the ANC’s support among older voters has also declined, including in rural heartlands.
“The ANC lost support in the big cities a long time ago. Now it is losing support in rural areas as well,” Professor Gumede told the BBC.
The ANC reached its electoral peak in 2004, when it obtained 70% of the vote. It has lost support by 3% or 4% in each election since then, reaching 57% in the 2019 poll.
In this election, the collapse in voting appears to be huge – somewhere between 8% and 15%.
2) Zuma’s return
Former South African President Jacob Zuma, 82, is back with a vengeance.
He was deposed by the ANC in 2018, amid allegations of corruption, which he denied. He was succeeded by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
About three years later, he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for contempt after defying a court order to appear before an inquiry investigating corruption during his nine-year presidency.
President Ramaphosa released Zuma after serving just three months of his sentence, in an attempt to placate him and his angry supporters.
But he is likely to regret the decision, as Zuma has returned to the political frontline under the banner of a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), or Spear of the Nation.
The results released so far suggest that the ANC has mainly bled support to MK, which could take control of the KwaZulu-Natal province.
If this is confirmed by the final result, Mr Zuma would become the political dean of the province and this would give him a basis to plan Mr Ramaphosa’s downfall – his main objective.
His conviction means he is barred from holding a seat in the National Assembly, but he is still able to control behind the scenes.
MK’s growth is extraordinary. It was only registered last September, with Mr Zuma announcing in December that he would join him because he could not vote for an ANC led by Ramaphosa. Since then, it has shaken up South African politics in a way that no new party has managed in such a short period since the end of apartheid.
Paddy Harper, KwaZulu-Natal correspondent for the South African newspaper Mail & Guardian, said MK had not only eroded the support of the ANC, but also that of the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the third largest party in South Africa. South so far.
The results so far suggest that MK is vying for third place in the national parliament.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the EFF’s final vote could be in single digits if current trends continue, despite the fact that the party has launched its election campaign in the province in the hope of growing there, Mr Harper told the BBC.
The EFF and MK advocate similar economic policies, including the expropriation of white-owned land and the nationalization of key sectors of the economy.
But Zuma won over EFF supporters in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province.
He infused his campaign with Zulu nationalism, invoking memories of the nation’s founder, King Shaka, during the campaign.
The former president also promised to increase the powers of all South African kings and chiefs, who currently have ceremonial powers, and help the government promote development in rural areas where they exercise influence.
The MK manifesto pledged to “expropriate all land without compensation, transferring ownership to the people under the custody of the State and traditional leaders”.
MK also campaigned on Zuma’s record in government, saying the economy had worsened under Ramaphosa.
MK supporters also criticize Ramaphosa for imposing one of the world’s strictest lockdowns during the Covid pandemic, saying this has worsened poverty and unemployment.
3) The dawn of coalition politics
South Africa’s respected Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the News24 website have projected that the ANC’s final vote could be around 42%.
If this is the case, the result will be catastrophic for the ANC – and for Mr Ramaphosa.
He may come under pressure from the party to resign, with his deputy, Paul Mashatile, being named as a potential successor.
Ramaphosa led the ANC in a lackluster election campaign, and the party became so desperate that it got former President Thabo Mbeki – as well as other retired party leaders – to join the campaign in a bid to bolster its vote.
The president is widely seen as weak and indecisive. He defended himself by saying his focus was on “social compaction,” or building consensus.
“Those who would like a dictatorial, adventurous, reckless president will not find that in me,” he said. he said, while on the campaign trail.
Ramaphosa’s chances of remaining in office will be greater if the ANC obtains between 45% and 50% of the final vote.
This is the outcome that many ANC members resigned themselves to during the election campaign, and said that the party could remain in power in coalition with smaller parties – such as the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which draws its support mainly from Zulu ethnic group in KwaZulu. -Christmas, or the Muslim party Al Jama-ah.
But if the ANC falls below 45%, it is likely to need a major party as a coalition partner.
It could be the MK, the EFF or the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), which advocates centre-right policies such as greater privatization and the elimination of the minimum wage.
Any coalition agreement at national level would be influenced by what happens in the provinces – especially the more populous ones of Gauteng, where Johannesburg and Pretoria are located, and KwaZulu-Natal.
One possibility would be a coalition between MK and the ANC both in KwaZulu-Natal and nationally, but given the turbulent relations between the two parties, this seems unlikely.
Instead, the ANC could try to offer the DA and IFP a deal that would allow the three parties to govern jointly nationally and in KwaZulu-Natal.
“The DA and IFP kept this option open to keep the EFF and MK out of government,” Harper said.
The DA’s support appears to have grown in these elections, with the party regaining votes from whites who supported a party to their right in the last elections, and from some blacks who felt they needed to have a chance at national government.
The ANC’s other option is to try to form a coalition with the EFF in the national government, as well as in Gauteng, where the ANC is also expected to lose its absolute majority.
ANC leaders in Gauteng, supported by Mr Mashatile, are said to prefer a coalition with the EFF. The two parties currently run the Johannesburg city council jointly.
Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader, is apparently open to the idea.
On South Africa’s Daily Maverick news website earlier this month, journalist Ferial Haffajee wrote that the EFF leader – who was previously convicted of hate speech for singing the anti-apartheid song Shoot the Boer [a reference to white farmers] – was “more considered and less furious” during the election campaign and, at a meeting at the City Council in April, expressed the opinion that the EFF’s natural coalition partner is the ANC.
“Even if the business community and markets are spooked by an ANC-EFF coalition, its potential is clearly at the heart of Malema’s strategy to get to the Union Buildings [the seat of government],” Haffajee wrote.
“Parts of the ANC support a coalition with the EFF. At the same time, Ramaphosa’s supporters in the ANC believe that such a coalition will cause an existential crisis for the culture of the ancient liberation movement,” he added.
Thus, the ANC will face difficult decisions, after an election that sees South Africa enter a new era, with the opposition having the power to make or break the government.
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