With the majority of election results in South Africa, the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) will have to deal with power-sharing following a historic loss of its parliamentary majority.
Counting in more than 91.62% of electoral districts is complete and the ANC’s vote share is currently 40.98%.
Behind are the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 21.65%, the MK party led by former president Jacob Zuma with 13.81% and the EFF with 9.49%.
Final results are expected over the weekend.
The ANC has consistently polled above 50% since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994, which saw Nelson Mandela become president.
Support for the ANC has declined significantly due to outrage at high levels of corruption, unemployment and crime.
A woman who voted for the ANC in every election for 30 years switched this time to the DA and said she wanted them out of power entirely due to the cost of living crisis and frequent power cuts.
“This result is not good. I wish this would be taken away from the government. We need to give someone a chance,” she told the BBC.
Political analyst Sanusha Naidoo told the BBC that although there were still many votes to count, there was no way the ANC could reach the 50% needed to form a government on its own. She said the best she could hope for was 45%
Thus, to maintain power, the party will have to form a coalition with one or more other parties.
ANC president Gwede Mantashe said his party was unlikely to form an alliance with the centre-right DA, which is currently in second place with 22%.
He said there would have to be “political alignment” between the parties for a coalition agreement.
For the ANC, its black empowerment policies – aimed at giving black people a stake in the economy after their exclusion during the racist apartheid era – were “non-negotiable”.
He added that any coalition partner would have to agree to the National Health Insurance (NHI) Act, which was signed into law earlier this month.
The DA opposes the black empowerment policies of the NHI and the ANC.
The DA’s support appears to have grown in these elections, with the party having regained votes from whites who supported a party to their right in the last elections, and from some blacks who felt they needed a chance at national government. .
Despite the ANC’s reluctance to align itself with the DA, its leader John Steenhuisen did not rule out the idea.
Steenhuisen said if an alliance with the ANC was reached there would be some non-negotiable issues.
“Respect for the Rule of Law and the Constitution, a social market economy that treats the private sector as a partner in the growth agenda.
“Zero tolerance to corruption and the mobilization of cadres, and an absolute focus on economic policies that create jobs.”
Steenhuisen also told the BBC he would have to consult pre-election coalition partners before considering any negotiations.
But he ruled out the EFF and the MK party, which advocates the seizure of white-owned land and the nationalization of mines, as potential coalition partners.
“I think instability is not in the country’s interest. A coalition with the radical left in South Africa of the MK party and the EFF will produce the same policies that destroyed Zimbabwe and destroyed Venezuela,” he said.
One possibility would be a coalition between the former MK party and the ANC, both in KwaZulu-Natal and nationally – but given the turbulent relations between the two parties, this seems unlikely.
Although Zuma has been suspended from the ANC, he is still a member. He appeared to suggest that he would make a deal with the ANC if it replaced President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader.
“My problem is with the leadership of the ANC, not with the ANC itself or its members,” he recently told the BBC.
However, he was reluctant to discuss the prospect of concluding a post-election pact with the ANC.
Another option would be to work with the EFF, led by Julius Malema, a former ANC youth leader. The two parties currently form the coalition that governs the country’s largest city, Johannesburg.
A record 70 parties and 11 independents competed, with South Africans voting for a new parliament and nine provincial legislatures.
The DA signed a pact with 10 of them, agreeing to form a coalition government if they win enough votes to dislodge the ANC from power.
But this does not include the EFF or MK, which would be needed to form a majority.
As parties struggle to form alliances, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who leads the African Union’s election observation mission in South Africa, offered some advice for coalition-building.
He said coalition governments need to focus on areas of agreement rather than differences.
“I can only wish them good luck and hope that the leadership takes this decision from the people in a positive way,” he said.
Additional reporting by Anne Soy and Anthony Irungu
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