The African National Congress (ANC), which governs South Africa, faces a complicated dilemma that will determine the country’s future after spectacularly losing its parliamentary majority in last week’s elections.
Having won just 40% of the vote, the ANC needs to find a coalition partner to secure a majority in parliament that supports its choice of president and legislative plans – unless it tries to go it alone with a minority government.
One option would be to reach an agreement with the second largest party, the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% of the vote.
However, this would be politically risky, as critics of the prosecution accuse it of trying to protect the economic privileges that the country’s white minority built up during the racist apartheid system – an accusation the party denies.
Alternatively, the ANC could work with two radical parties that have split from it – former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party or Julio Malemaof the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
These three parties share the same constituency, the black majority, and their combined vote reaches 65%. Mr Malema warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “reinforce white supremacy” and be a “puppet of a white imperialist agenda”.
This was a clear reference to a coalition with the DA, whose policies are diametrically opposed to those of the ANC, but both agree on the need to defend the constitution that South Africa adopted at the end of apartheid in 1994.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that any coalition agreement would have to be within the framework of the current Constitution.
One of the major obstacles to a deal is the Attorney General’s fierce opposition to the ANC’s efforts to create a welfare state – especially one government-funded national health servicewhich the Prosecutor’s Office rejects, saying it is too expensive and threatens the future of the private health sector.
The DA believes in the free market, opposes the minimum wage and wants to reduce bureaucracy, saying this is the best way to improve the economy and raise the standard of living for all South Africans.
It vehemently opposes the ANC’s black economic empowerment policies, considering them to be discriminatory against racial minorities, while at the same time simply leading to the enrichment of the ANC’s corporate cronies.
Denying the accusations, the ANC has resolutely pursued these policies, arguing that they give black people a stake in the economy from which they were excluded during apartheid.
ANC president Gwede Mantashe has gone so far as to say that the ANC’s black empowerment policies are non-negotiable, suggesting that he has ruled out a coalition with the DA.
But, according to some local media, President Ramaphosa is willing to enter a coalition with the DA, believing that their political differences could be overcome.
To overcome racial sensitivities, other parties – such as the predominantly black Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Good Party, which draws its support mainly from the colored community, as people of mixed race are known in South Africa – could be included to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with the MK, which was the big winner of the elections by securing third place with 15% of the votes in the first elections it contested.
But he demands a new vote, claiming that he received even more votes, but the final result was rigged. The electoral commission rejected the allegation and MK has not yet provided any evidence for its claim.
The gulf between it and the ANC is wide, greater than with any other party, in part due to the personal animosity between Zuma and Ramaphosa, who removed him as leader of the country.
In addition to demanding a new president, MK wants the Constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “unrestricted parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has ruled out.
At first glance, this also excludes the EFF, as it too requires a constitutional change so that white-owned land can be expropriated without compensation.
Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled by the party in 2012 for fomenting divisions and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was willing to work with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s demand for land expropriation was a “fundamental principle” and it would not join the government if the ANC rejected it.
The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party would have to be brought into coalition.
Or they could ally themselves with Zuma’s MK, which also supports land expropriation and claims there is a need to distribute agricultural land on an “egalitarian basis among the agricultural population”.
But to change the Constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed, and once again the ANC, EFF and MK fall short of the 267 seats needed – they have 256 seats between them.
Although the ANC opposes constitutional changes, it accepts that current land ownership patterns need to be addressed.
In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former President Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Ramaphosa, said the “land issue” was a “source of national grievance”.
His comments suggest there could be room for agreement with the EFF, and possibly even MK, on the issue.
The DA strongly opposes a deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a “Doomsday Coalition” that would turn South Africa into “Zimbabwe or Venezuela”.
“The Doomsday Coalition will plunge this country into ethnic and racial conflict like it has never witnessed before,” the party says.
But some ANC officials take the opposite view – that stability would be threatened if MK were excluded, given its electoral success, which has made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.
KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second most populous province and is often described as the nation’s economic artery due to its ports.
It is also the most politically volatile province, with a history of violence – more than 300 people died in riots after Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.
He was found in contempt of court for defying an order to cooperate with an official corruption inquiry during his nine-year presidency, which ended in 2018.
ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another court case imminent – Zuma is due to stand trial next year on charges of corruption in a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a new wave of violence.
They therefore feel that it is necessary to reach some kind of agreement with him to draw a line with the past and to recognize his status as a former president – especially since he has demonstrated that he holds 15% of the national vote.
ANC leaders in Gauteng – South Africa’s largest and richest province – are said to be in favor of a deal with the EFF, but their position has been considerably weakened by the fact that the two parties do not have enough seats to a parliamentary majority.
This raises the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, especially as it is favored by the private sector as the best option to ensure economic stability and prevent capital flight.
But South Africa’s respected News24 website reports that the ANC is considering the option of forming a minority government, while also signing a confidence and supply agreement with the DA and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a majority black party with support in KwaZulu-Natal. which has 17 seats.
The two would vote with the ANC on crucial issues like the budget, while the ANC would have to constantly lobby them – or other parties – to support it on other legislation.
This could help the ANC out of its dilemma of choosing a coalition partner, and it could also serve the AD, as a coalition with the ANC could cause it to lose support to parties to its right.
However, there is a risk that a minority government could lead to political instability and “transactional politics” – opposition MPs demanding or receiving bribes to support ANC-sponsored legislation.
It’s still too early to say what will happen. All parties are still considering their options, but many South Africans hope that when parliament convenes in two weeks’ time there will be at least a preliminary agreement on what the next government will look like.
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