PPolitical analysts and exit pollsters were quick to predict that Narendra Modi was poised to win a third term as India’s prime minister in this year’s elections, which began on April 19 and ended on June 1. Party (BJP), win enough votes to claim an absolute majority?
The answer became clear when the final results came in on Tuesday, June 4th. With more than 50% of the votes countedThe BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (which consists of several right-wing conservative regional parties) have so far won 290 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha or the lower house of India’s parliament – falling short of the 400-seat mark the alliance boasted himself that he would win and, in effect, lose the single-party majority that Modi had enjoyed since he was first elected in 2014. The ruling party alone claimed 238 seats – also a stark departure from the resounding victory of the BJP in 2019 when it won an unprecedented 303 seats. seats.
In contrast, the INDIA opposition alliance – which is made up of more than 20 opposition parties, including the Indian National Congress – won 235 seats, performing better than expected. Final results are expected Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
In India’s electoral system, the party or alliance that wins more than 272 seats in the 543-member parliament can form a government. Voting was held in seven phases over six weeks and saw more than a billion Indians go to the polls – making it the largest democratic election in the world.
Modi, 73, a charismatic but polarizing leader, will preside over a rare third consecutive term. Only one other Indian prime minister, Congress leader Jawaharlal Nehru, who was India’s first prime minister, has done so before. Speaking at the BJP headquarters in Delhi on Tuesday evening, Modi praised India’s electoral process and celebrated the achievements of the BJP. “No government has returned to power for the third time since 1962,” he said, adding that the number of votes in favor of the BJP has doubled in some areas.
But while Modi will likely be able to move forward with his promised Hindu nationalist agenda and suite of economic reforms, the BJP’s smaller-than-expected majority means it could face a more powerful opposition than at any time in the last decade – making the Implementation will be difficult unless the BJP negotiates with smaller alliances and opposition leaders.
“This election is undoubtedly a rebuke to Modi and the BJP,” says Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “After ten years in power, it was, in many ways, a referendum on his record in office and there are clearly many Indians who feel restless and unsettled.”
How did India vote?
To achieve a landslide victory, the BJP needed to make electoral gains in two crucial areas. It needed to make headway in the southern states, which seemed unlikely given that it has traditionally had less influence among a diverse and more economically developed non-Hindi-speaking electorate. And he needed to win more votes in strongholds like Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, which is seen as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.
The BJP managed to make impressive gains in the south, winning a seat in the left-leaning state of Kerala, where it has never won before. It maintained its stronghold in Karnataka, winning 19 seats compared to nine for INDIA. And it tied in Telangana, where the opposition defeated the BJP in state elections held last year, securing eight seats.
But surprisingly, the BJP performed unevenly across the Hindi belt and suffered perhaps its biggest defeat in Uttar Pradesh, where Modi opened The Hindu temple in the city of Ayodhya a few months ago, fulfilling a three-decade-old BJP promise and cementing its Hindu nationalist legacy. The initial count suggested that the BJP alliance won just 35 of 80 seats — a stark contrast to the 71 and 62 seats won during the 2014 and 2019 elections that helped fuel the party’s rise to power in Delhi.
This time, a divisive campaign saw Muslim votes in the state consolidated towards the opposition coalition, formed between two main parties, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. “The loss in Uttar Pradesh is particularly significant because this state is the cradle of the Hindu nationalist movement,” says Gilles Vernier, senior fellow at the Center for Political Research in Delhi. “These results break the myth that [Modi’s] invincibility in national elections, particularly in the Hindi-speaking North.”
The BJP swept its other stronghold states, including Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. In comparison, the opposition alliance made marginal gains in Bihar and Rajasthan as well as Haryana and Punjab.
“What’s complex about these elections is that it feels more like a state-by-state contest, with no unifying national narrative,” says Vaishnav. “At some point, the popularity of alternatives and other local factors also become primary factors,” he continues.
What do the results say about the BJP’s electoral mandate?
In this election, Modi campaigned in the “Modi guarantee” slogan, referring to the more than 300 welfare programs that have provided benefits to Indian citizens across the country, from cooking gas to free housing. While these benefits were seen as a key concern for voters, the survey also found limited concrete evidence in “schemes that translate into votes.”
Modi and the BJP have also taken pride in reducing poverty in the world’s fifth-largest economy, with development high on the prime minister’s agenda. Although India’s GDP grew at a rate of 7.8% last quarter, rising inequality, rising cost of living and record unemployment continued to be major concerns for voters, as evident in pre-election polls. credible voters.
“Narendra Modi’s government has ignored the basic discontent over economic hardship and jobless growth,” says Verniers. “These elections could be the moment when economic reality recovers.”
Entering his third term, Modi touted an ambitious economic reform agenda that he hopes will make India the world’s third-largest economy by 2047. The BJP’s failure to win a majority, however, means it will now face a challenge in implementation. of its economic policy, unless it forms alliances with smaller parties. The impact was already reverberating across India’s stock market on Tuesday, when the Nifty 50 index it fell up 8.5% – the biggest single-day drop in more than four years – after reaching an all-time high on Monday, when polls indicated a comfortable victory for Modi.
Modi now faces a more powerful opposition than at any time in the last decade. Throughout the elections, the INDIA alliance accused the government of paralyzing the opposition by arresting two state leaders and freezing Congress’s bank accounts.
“For the first time since becoming prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi will have to effectively share power with coalition partners,” says Verniers. “This is uncharted territory for a leader who has always wielded power alone.”
But the results are undoubtedly a personal setback for the prime minister, whose face has been the central promise of the BJP’s campaign in these elections – featured on billboards, posters and campaigns across the country – and who has never had to rely on coalition partners to get results. survival.
“Only time will tell if he will learn the art of conciliation and power sharing, or if he will follow the path of autocratization to compensate for the loss of political ground”, adds Vernier.
“This is the most important issue facing India right now.”
Write to Astha Rajvanshi in astha.rajvanshi@time.com.
