Ukraine’s controversial new plan to recruit more soldiers

Members of the Siberian Battalion during military exercises with the International Legion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on April 10, 2024 in Ukraine. Credit – Andrew Kravchenko – Global Images Ukraine / Getty Images

youUkraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a law to expand conscription and strengthen oversight during its war with Russia. enters its third year.

The much-debated legislation includes a series of changes, such as a ban on driving men who do not respond to mobilization orders and the requirement to provide proof of military registration when requested at the border and to obtain a new passport. The most controversial thing is that it did not include a proposal to demobilize soldiers after 36 months.

“It’s a very, very complex law that will change the mobilization process,” Oksana Zabolotna, head of the analytical department at the Kiev-based NGO Center for United Actions, told TIME.

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also signed laws which reduced the recruitment age from 27 to 25, among other measures. Zabolotna says he believes that all the new laws could, together, bring in around 50,000 more recruits.

Zelenskyy had said in December that his commander wanted him to mobilize up to 500,000 more troops, but later withdrew that number after review by his new commander, the Associated Press reported. The actual number of how many troops the country needs is confidential, Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at British think tank Chatham House, tells TIME.

“The issue is very delicate,” Zelenskyy said in December when asked for details about the expanded mobilization, according to one report. English interpretation by C-SPAN. “We cannot lose resilience, potential, but we need justice, which is very important.”

Here’s what you need to know about Ukraine’s controversial new recruitment legislation.

What is Ukraine’s new recruitment legislation?

O new legislation renews the mobilization system, which has been in place since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and its mandatory military registration that predates that.

The bill, which received more than 4,000 amendments, was approved on April 11. It needs to be signed into law by Zelenskyy and will come into force a month later.

Some of the big changes make rules clearer to streamline existing military registration and mobilization processes, exempt fewer people from military service and strengthen enforcement to prevent draft evasion, experts tell TIME.

O BBC reportedbased on data on illegal border crossings from the country’s neighbors, that nearly 20,000 men left the country to avoid being drafted from February 2022 to November 2023, with Kiev confirming to the BBC that another 21,000 were caught fleeing.

New crackdown provisions include allowing territorial recruitment centers to go to court and restricting a recruit’s right to drive a vehicle if they fail to respond to deployment, with exceptions for those who need to drive for work or to care for dependents. It also requires men to have military registration and present it when requested at the border and when obtaining a new passport.

The legislation could also expand recruitment among people previously considered physically unfit for duty, as it requires those with certain disability categories to undergo a second medical examination. This is aimed at cracking down on bogus medical exemptions, says Lutsevych.

However, some critics question whether this will be enough to improve the mobilization system.

“The approved law introduces more transparency and tries to ensure that it is more difficult for people to escape both registration at Territorial Recruitment Centers and military service, but it is seen by many as not being strict enough,” Julia Kazdobina, head of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Studies, he told TIME in an email. “Therefore, there is no confidence that this will solve the existing problem.”

Why is the new legislation controversial?

The main conflict with the legislation was a last-minute decision to remove a measure allowing troops to demobilize after 36 months.

This was done at the request of the Minister of Defense and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine, who wrote in a letter that he needed more time to resolve the issue, says Kazdobina. Due to inefficient mobilization that could lead to imperfect implementation, “they don’t want to run the risk of promising current military personnel that they will be demobilized within a set period of time without being sure that they will have people to replace them,” she adds.

Deputy of the Ukrainian Parliament Oleksii Honcharenko said on Telegram who did not vote in favor of the law because it was important to include demobilization. “I will keep fighting! Clear terms of service must be established!” he wrote, according to a Google translation of his post.

The law was controversial for a few reasons, Marnie Howlett, a professor of politics at the University of Oxford, tells TIME. One is the need to balance supporting Ukraine’s economy with sustaining the military ranks, while another is the emphasis that has been placed on protecting the younger generation from war.

And after years of tireless fighting, “people are exhausted,” says Howlett. Demobilization would have offered hope to her friends and others on the front lines, some without previous military experience and psychological safeguards, she adds.

Kazdobina says the lack of an end date for service demotivates new recruits: “Many men say they don’t want to serve because it’s like buying a one-way ticket.”

However, the government has to weigh this with practical considerations that it needs troops. Zabolotna says the demobilization provision “was known to be harmful and unenforceable,” given that Ukraine does not know when the war will end.

She says an accessible and rational alternative must be offered to soldiers and officers who perceive this negatively. The legislation includes a provision for 30-day annual leave, with a portion not less than 15 days, given that no more than 30% of a unit is absent –– but Zabolotna questions whether this is feasible given the low number of troops. Another bill on demobilization is expected, he adds.

TIME contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which referred questions to the Ukrainian Parliament, which TIME also contacted, to respond to the criticism.

What do the new laws mean about the progress of Ukraine’s war effort?

Experts say TIME’s moves to expand recruitment show Ukraine is preparing for a long war.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily an indication that things are going badly on the battlefield, but rather that Ukraine is prepared and just realizes that it’s not going to be as short as they thought,” Howlett says.

Olga Onuch, professor of comparative and Ukrainian politics at the University of Manchester, told TIME in an email that the mobilization law was requested by the army, “but is also understood as a necessity by all leaders and political parties,” despite be understandably unpopular with the public.
Onuch says the law will be a political test for the President and political opposition leaders about the extent to which they can work together on something that is not instantly supported by the public, which “will tell us a lot about the ability of different political groups to lead in the context of war.”

Contact us at the letters@time.com.