Retaining Dr. S. Jaishankar as Foreign Minister clearly signals the continuity of India’s foreign policy objectives under Modi 3.0. But could Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s success in the foreign policy arena perish on the altar of coalition politics?
Collective wisdom suggests that despite a reduced mandate, India’s foreign policy pursuit under Modi 3.0 is unlikely to be affected. There is unanimity among politicians and experts that the Modi government’s mantra of “strategic consensus” and pursuit of multilateralism will continue to propel India towards becoming a global force as well as the world’s third largest economy (after the US and of China) by 2027.
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The general consensus seems to be that Modi’s foreign policy has already catapulted India onto the global stage. So far, his actions have reflected a differentiated approach to maintaining an independent foreign policy that is in India’s national interest. India may not yet be a great power, but it is an emerging great power, as American political scientist John Mearsheimer recently suggested. In Modi’s third term, India will certainly strive to go beyond the status of an emerging great power.
If the new reality of a coalition government is unlikely to undermine Modi’s foreign policy objectives, will it be smooth sailing for him from now on?
The challenges to continue
During Modi’s last term, India faced all kinds of pressure to become a formal ally of the US. But he commendably avoided President Joe Biden’s charm offensive. Biden extended a state visit to Modi, accompanied by a hero’s welcome at the White House. It was one of the best moments of Modi’s long political career, but rather than treating it as a personal triumph (remember how he was denied entry by the US for years after the violence in Gujarat in 2002?), he saw it as as a recognition of India’s rise.
The Modi-Jaishankar partnership has remained steadfast in avoiding strict alliances with any major power. Instead, the pair attempted to balance relations between competing global powers, which can be seen in India’s interactions with the US, Russia and China, as well as its balancing act between Israel and Middle Eastern countries.
In the coming years, the challenges will become even greater for the Modi government because the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia are expected to continue to undermine the US-dominated liberal global order. The war in Ukraine has dragged on with no end in sight, which is why the US is desperate to bring powers like India into its orbit of influence. If India were to become a formal US ally, it would be a huge boost for President Biden.
On the other hand, it is obvious that President Putin would not like to lose an old and trusted friend in India, which depends heavily on him for its defense and energy needs.
Will India become a formal US ally under Modi 3.0?
Many academics, policymakers and analysts in the US continue to argue vehemently that becoming a formal ally of the US is more beneficial for India and will help it achieve its goal of becoming a major global power. Many in India also believe that it is in the country’s national interest to join hands with the most powerful country on the planet. So, if it is indeed in India’s national interest, why not? After all, India and the US are already part of the Quad group, along with Japan and Australia.
There is no doubt that the argument for an India-US alliance is very powerful and full of benefits. India faces China’s growing economic and military ambitions. So, might Modi feel compelled to reach a comprehensive agreement with the US and achieve more rewarding economic cooperation and comprehensive security protection against any future Chinese aggression? Given recent incidents of border skirmishes and the fact that China is an immediate neighbor, India faces a greater security threat from China than any of its neighbors. So, apparently, it makes sense to stay under US security coverage.
Proponents of such an argument say that India needs investment, technology and semiconductor chips for its industries. You also need advanced weapons for your military. They believe that the US can also help India become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Above all, they say that both countries share democratic values. It is said that if India became an ally of the US, it would gain much more from the alliance than the US.
Many also argue that the alliance could be modeled on NATO. The security relationship between the US and the European Union is anchored in NATO, created in 1949 to protect Europe against the Communist Soviet Union. This military alliance not only guarantees the defense of Europe, but also promotes a close political relationship between the US and EU Member States.
In return, EU countries support US positions on global affairs. This is why the EU supported the American invasion of Iraq and supported Israel without questioning much of its action in Gaza. Indeed, many EU member countries have to exercise their independent foreign policy cautiously, especially on an issue in which the US has a strategic interest. They have to follow the American line.
Those who are not in favor of India becoming an ally of the US say that if India follows this path, it will have to sacrifice its foreign policy autonomy, and this is non-negotiable for the Modi-Jaishankar duo. For example, if India had been an ally of the US in 2003, it would have had to make a difficult choice between supporting the US invasion of Iraq and remaining steadfast in solidarity with an old Arab friend. The Philippines and Thailand are US allies in East Asia. But has this helped them calm their concerns about China? South Korea is an American ally, but its citizens experience sleepless nights whenever tensions with North Korea rise.
Rooted in reality
Ultimately, India collaborates fully with the US when it comes to managing China’s rapid rise as a global power. But here, once again, India’s policy towards China is mainly based on its own reality. The conflict in the Galwan Valley has seriously damaged relations between India and China, although bilateral trade continues to grow.
Again, Russia has been India’s friend under all conditions and often appears to want nothing in return for its deep commitment to India. The US and other Western powers are wary of India’s close ties with Russia. They have repeatedly called on India to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Talking about Modi’s Gulf policy, his engagements with the Gulf countries and West Asia have been a great success. On the Israel-Gaza issue, India’s strategic autonomy is expected to continue. India’s ties with Israel have become stronger under Modi, with greater cooperation in defense, technology and agriculture. They will become even stronger in the near future. Simultaneously, India has maintained strong ties with Arab countries, especially in the Gulf, which are crucial for energy security and India’s large expatriate population. The West views India’s balance positively, recognizing the strategic importance of maintaining relations with both Israel and the Arab world. This balance is seen as a testament to India’s diplomatic elegance.
Some policymakers believe that if India truly harbors the ambition of becoming a global power, it cannot remain a mute spectator in times of major global crises. For example, when the US, under President Trump, lost the confidence of the Palestinians as a neutral mediator, some argued that it was an opportunity for India to offer its mediation and try to bring the Palestinians and Israel to the negotiating table. After all, India enjoys immense goodwill among both Israelis and Palestinians.
They now give the example of China, which successfully brought together the sworn enemies of Saudi Arabia and Iran and won the right to be a serious mediator.
It is possible that we will see a more assertive foreign policy in Modi’s third term, in which India’s stance on major global issues will be better articulated. But expecting India to mediate between the warring parties may still be a step too far.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior Indian journalist based in London with three decades of experience with Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
This story originally appeared on Ndtv.com read the full story
