GENEVA — Switzerland will host dozens of world leaders this weekend to try to chart the first steps toward peace in Ukraine, despite Russia, which launched and continues the warwill not participate.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government did not want Russia to participate, and the Swiss, aware of Moscow’s reservations about the talks, did not invite Russia. The Swiss insist that Russia must be involved at some point and hope that it will one day join the process.
Ukrainians are also considering that possibility, says Zelenskyy’s top adviser.
The process, which is unlikely to produce any major results this weekend, is seen as a largely symbolic effort by kyiv to rally the international community and project force against its better-armed and manned adversary. But the question hanging over the summit will be how the two countries can step back from the brink and eventually silence the guns in a war that has cost hundreds of billions of dollars and caused hundreds and thousands of deaths and casualties, without Moscow attend.
The conflict has also caused international sanctions against Russia, which has nuclear weapons, and has increased tensions between NATO and Moscow. The summit comes as Russian forces have been making modest territorial gains in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, expanding the control they already have over about a quarter of the country.
Here’s a look at what to expect from the weekend gathering at the Burgenstock resort, on a cliff overlooking Lake Lucerne.
At stake will be a simple optics: how many countries the Swiss and Ukrainians can attract. The greater the participation, the greater the international push (and pressure) for peace, the thinking goes.
Swiss officials sent out about 160 invitations and say about 90 delegations will attend, including a handful from international organizations such as the UN. About half will come from Europe. Zelenskyy led a diplomatic effort, in Asia and beyond, to engage.
Several dozen attendees will be heads of state or government, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris, and the White House National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, will participate.
President Joe Biden is scheduled to attend a campaign fundraiser in Los Angeles hosted by actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts on Saturday.
China, Russia’s key ally, will not attend.
China’s Foreign Ministry has said it believes any such international peace conference should involve both Russia and Ukraine, although Beijing supports efforts to end the conflict and is monitoring developments in Switzerland.
The final list of attendees is not expected until Friday evening, and questions remain about how, if at all, key developing countries such as India, Brazil and Turkey might participate.
But so far, less than half of the United Nations’ 193 member countries plan to attend, demonstrating a wait-and-see attitude in many world capitals.
“Russia doesn’t have many allies in this particular situation,” said Keith Krause, a professor of international security studies at the Geneva University Institute. “You have several states that are susceptible to pressure, and a few that really want to stay out of what they see as a confrontation in the north, between the United States and Russia, NATO and Russia.”
“Basically, they don’t have, what they would consider, a dog in the fight,” he added.
Critics have claimed that the peace “summit” will lack substantial achievements toward peace without Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government does not believe that Switzerland – which has lined up behind European Union sanctions against Moscow over the war – is neutral. Swiss authorities have worked closely with Ukraine to organize the conference.
Participants are expected to unite around an outcome document or joint plan, and Ukraine will have a lot of say in what it says. But it is still a work in progress to refine language that delegations can agree to and could explain why some countries have not yet said whether they will attend.
Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said Ukrainian officials wanted countries that respect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity to be invited. He said the basis of the talks should be a 10 point peace formula that Zelenskyy has presented, and raised the possibility that Russia could be invited to a second such summit.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday evening, Yermak said that Ukraine and the other participants would prepare a “joint plan” to join, “and we are looking for the possibility at the second summit to invite representatives of Russia and present this joint plan together.” “. .”
When asked what the measure of a successful summit in Burgenstock would be, he responded: “We think it’s already a success because it’s a large number of countries (attending).”
The Ukraine peace plan, released by Zelenskyy in late 2022, outlines 10 proposals that outline the president’s step-by-step vision for ending the war against the Russian invasion, now in its third year.
The plan includes ambitious calls, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory, the cessation of hostilities and the reestablishment of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia, including Crimea. This is an unlikely outcome at this stage of this war, as Ukraine is unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Moscow’s military has the advantage in manpower and firepower, while kyiv’s push has been stalled by delays in Western military supplies.
That’s probably why the most controversial elements of the plan are not being discussed.
Only three issues will be on the table at the summit: nuclear safety, including at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant; humanitarian aid; and food security, not only in Ukraine but globally, in particular the indirect effects of the war on Ukrainian agricultural production and exports.
Western officials in kyiv said these issues transcend international interests and it is easy for kyiv to mobilize the international community. But they do not cover the most difficult issues that can only be resolved with Moscow as a negotiating partner.
Russia’s hesitation about the conference is due in part to its unwillingness to show any sign of acceptance of Ukraine’s long-standing peace formula, which it rejects, or of any red lines set by kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has supported an agreement that will build on a draft peace agreement negotiated in the early days of the war that included provisions for Ukraine’s neutral status and placed limits on its armed forces, while delaying talks on the status of Russian-occupied areas.
The Graduate Institute’s Krause said Ukraine needs to emerge from the conference with “momentum”: a reaffirmation of the commitment of its key allies and partners to its “bottom line” on issues such as territorial integrity and future relations, even if Membership may be far away, someday in NATO or the European Union.
He said Ukraine will want to see a reaffirmation that it is up to kyiv to set the terms on which it will end the war.
“I don’t think anyone is particularly deluded into thinking that this will lead to a new peace plan, or even some kind of agreement that stops hostilities on the battlefield,” Krause said. “But as past wars have shown, even as early as World War II, discussions about the contours of peace began long before battlefield fighting ceased.”
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Associated Press writer Samya Kullab in kyiv, Ukraine, contributed to this report.
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