For Kim “this visit is a victory,” said Leif-Eric Easley. (File)
Seoul:
Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to North Korea on Tuesday to meet leader Kim Jong Un, in a high-level visit that will showcase the deepening of their ties.
AFP takes a look at what we know:
Why are North Korea and Russia friends?
When it was founded in the aftermath of World War II, North Korea became close to the Soviet Union.
The collapse of the USSR in 1991 left North Korea without a major benefactor, which helped trigger a widespread famine later that decade.
In 2000, shortly after becoming president, Putin sought to renew ties, visiting Pyongyang to meet with Kim’s father, then-leader Kim Jong Il – becoming the first Russian leader to do so.
Still, in the mid-2000s, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia supported UN sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear program.
When Kim Jong Un replaced his father in 2011, he initially tried to strike a balance between Russia and North Korea’s other important historical ally, China.
But Russia and North Korea have since moved closer, with Moscow forgiving most of its ally’s debt in 2012, and Kim traveling to Vladivostok, near the border, in 2019 to meet Putin.
Why visit now?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has become increasingly isolated and is looking for friends, experts say.
Last year, Kim made a rare trip abroad in his bulletproof train to meet Putin at a Russian spaceport.
South Korea, the United States and Ukraine alleged that North Korea was sending weapons to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine, in violation of UN sanctions, in exchange for technical help with its nascent satellite program. .
North Korea denied this, calling the allegation “absurd” – while thanking Russia for using its UN veto in March to effectively end monitoring of sanctions violations, at a time when UN experts began investigating alleged arms transfers.
Kim has also stepped up weapons testing, including a series of launches this year of cruise missiles, which analysts say North Korea could supply to Russia for use in Ukraine.
“During the Cold War, North Korea was always in a position to ask Russia for military and economic aid,” Cheong Seong-chang, from the Sejong Institute, based in Seoul, told AFP.
The two countries are “cooperating equally” for the first time, Cheong said, adding that it was a kind of “honeymoon period” for them.
What does Kim gain from this?
For Kim, “this visit is a victory,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
A summit with Putin will “improve” North Korea’s international status and “reinforce Kim’s domestic legitimacy,” he said, adding that while Russia cannot replace China economically, it shows that “Pyongyang has options.”
Kim is expected to welcome Putin in person at Pyongyang’s Sunan International Airport, likely accompanied by Kim Yo Jong, his powerful sister, and his teenage daughter Kim Ju Ae – who many experts speculate could be North Korea’s next ruler.
South Korean news agency Yonhap said satellite images showed possible signs of a “large structure” being installed in Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square – potentially indicating that preparations for a major event or parade were underway.
And the results?
Quoting a Kremlin aide, Russian agencies said on Monday that the two leaders would sign “important documents” during the visit.
This could include a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” that will outline future cooperation and address “security issues,” Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov was quoted as saying by Russian state news agencies.
“North Korea is giving the highest priority to relations with Russia and Russia is reciprocating,” said Cheong of the Sejong Institute.
“Cooperation between the two countries in the military and economic sectors is expected to expand.”
What is the next?
Before the visit, North Korea did not carry out any major weapons tests – nor did it launch garbage-filled balloons into South Korea in revenge for similar letters sent to the North by activists, as it has done in recent days.
But the calm will not last long, Cheong said.
Emboldened by Putin’s visit, Kim is likely to “switch to a hardline mode against the South after Putin leaves.”
Experts said that during Putin’s visit, North Korea will likely push to export more war materials for use in Ukraine in exchange for importing food and energy from Russia.
“At least for now, Putin’s war in Ukraine establishes an ‘axis of transactionalism’ among sanctions violators who seek to exchange yesterday’s weapons for today’s military technology,” said Ewha University’s Easley.
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