Russia-North Korea pact could dent China’s influence, but Beijing still holds sway over both

BEIJING — China seems to keep its distance Russia and North Korea get closer each other with a new defense pact that could tip the balance of power between the three authoritarian states.

Experts say China’s leaders are likely worried about the potential loss of influence over North Korea following North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. signed the agreement this weekand how that could increase instability on the Korean Peninsula. But Beijing may be struggling to find an answer because of its conflicting goals: maintaining peace in the Koreas while countering the United States and its Western allies on the global stage.

So far, Beijing has not commented on the agreement, which requires both countries provide defense assistance if the other is attacked, and only reiterated repetitive statements that it seeks to defend peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and promote a political solution to the North-South divide.

The Chinese response has been “very weak,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that it could be a sign that Beijing still doesn’t know what to do.

“Every option is a bad option,” he said. “Either you are unable to make a decision because of deeply held opposing views or… you are simply unable to make a decision because you simply don’t know how to evaluate the situation.”

Some in Beijing may welcome the partnership between Russia and North Korea as a way to push back on US dominance in world affairs, but Cha said “there is also great discomfort” in China, which does not want to lose its domain. Regarding its neighbor Russia, it does not want to see a destabilizing nuclear power on its doorstep and does not want to take the conflict from Europe to Asia.

But China does not publicly raise these concerns. “They don’t want to push Kim Jong Un into the arms of Vladimir Putin,” Cha said, referring to the leaders of the two countries.

Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, declined to comment on the new agreement. “Cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is a matter between two sovereign states. We have no information on the relevant matter,” he said, referring to North Korea by the initials of its official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that the Russia-North Korea pact “should be of concern to any country that believes U.N. Security Council resolutions should be respected.” . The Security Council has imposed sanctions on North Korea to try to stop its development of nuclear weapons.

Kirby also said the deal “should be of concern to anyone who thinks supporting the people of Ukraine is important. And we would think that concern would be shared by the People’s Republic of China.”

One area that could worry China is whether Russia will help North Korea’s weapons program by sharing advanced technology, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“If China is really concerned, it has influence in both Russia and North Korea and could probably try to put some limitations on that relationship,” he said.

The meeting between Putin and Kim this week was the latest chapter in decades of complicated political and military relations in East Asia, where the once-underdog Chinese Communist Party has emerged as a leading power that wields influence over both North Korea as about Russia.

That and other developments have raised alarm bells in the United States that Beijing, now the world’s second-largest economy, could challenge the U.S.-led world order by aligning itself with countries such as Russia, North Korea and Iran. Beijing has rejected that accusation.

Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said Beijing does not want to form a three-way alliance with North Korea and Russia because it “needs to keep its options open.”

Such a coalition could mean a new Cold War, something Beijing says it is determined to avoid, and locking in on Pyongyang and Moscow would run counter to China’s goals of maintaining relations with Europe and improving ties with Japan and South Korea, he said.

Sun added that the rapprochement between North Korea and Moscow “opens up possibilities and potentials for uncertainty, but based on what has happened so far, I don’t think this has undermined China’s national interests.”

Closer ties between Putin and Kim could weaken Beijing’s influence and leave it the “biggest loser,” said Danny Russel, who was the top U.S. diplomat for Asia during the Obama administration.

“Aside from irritation at Putin’s intrusion into what most Chinese consider their sphere of influence, the real cost to China is that Russia’s acquiescence gives North Korea greater impunity and room to maneuver without regard. takes into account Beijing’s interests,” he said.

Russel, now vice president of international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Kim is eager to reduce his country’s dependence on China.

“The dilution of Chinese influence means that Kim Jong Un can ignore Beijing’s calls for restraint,” he said, “and that is much more likely to create chaos at a time when (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping desperately wants stability.” “.

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Tang reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Will Weissert in Washington contributed.