(Bloomberg) — France’s National Rally consolidated its lead in opinion polls conducted just over a week before the country’s early elections, with one projection showing the far-right party could win an absolute majority in the new parliament.
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The party, led by the 28-year-old Jordan Bardela, had the support of 33% of likely voters, according to a survey published Friday by Odoxa. The National Rally was ahead of the 28% score of the left-wing New Popular Front alliance and 19% of President Emmanuel Macron’s movement.
In another poll published on Saturday by Opinionway and Vae Solis, the far-right party gained two percentage points compared to June 14, to 35%, while the New Popular Front gained three points to 28% and Macron’s movement gained two points to 22%.
An Ipsos poll published late on Saturday showed that support for the National Rally and its allies was 35.5%, ahead of 29.5% and 19.5% for the New Popular Front and Macron’s movement.
Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called an early legislative vote after his group was defeated in this month’s European Parliament elections. The first round of voting is scheduled for June 30th and the second for July 7th.
Predicting the number of seats that each party will be able to obtain is complicated. France’s electoral process relies on a two-round system, which in most cases sees the top two candidates in the first round face off in the second round.
In some cases, however, three candidates may qualify for a second round. The current dynamics could translate into 120 to 170 clashes of this type, compared to just eight during the 2022 elections, Odoxa’s projections show.
There are 577 parliamentary seats up for grabs, with 289 needed to obtain an absolute majority.
National Rally and affiliated candidates could win 250 to 300 seats in the next parliament, up from 89 now, according to Odoxa research. The New Popular Front could have between 160 and 210 lawmakers, while Macron’s movement could get 70 to 120 seats, down from 250.
Odoxa, Opinionway and Ipsos interviewed 2,006, 1,009 and 2,000 people online, respectively, between 19 and 20 June.
(Updates with Ipsos poll numbers in fourth paragraph)
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