By Leigh Thomas
PARIS (Reuters) – This month’s European elections were not just a trigger for the French president Emmanuel Macron call an early parliamentary vote, but it also gives clues about the far right’s rapid rise to leader status and the main concerns of its voters.
In the EU vote on June 9, Marina LePenThe National Rally (RN) was the first to be voted on in 93% of France’s 35,000 municipalities (the lowest level of administration), which translates into 80% of parliamentary constituencies.
A Reuters analysis of electoral data looks at correlations between the RN score, on the one hand, and income, education level, distance traveled and previous abstention rate, on the other.
EXPANDING THE APPEAL OF THE FAR RIGHT
Le Pen has worked hard to detoxify the image of her Eurosceptic nationalist party, presenting it more broadly as a defender of family incomes, employment and French identity.
In the general EU vote, the RN outperformed Macron’s Renaissance party by two to one. In doing so, it broadened its appeal significantly beyond its historic strongholds on the Mediterranean coast and the northern rust belt – where in some areas it outsold the Renaissance by seven to one.
Although the RN won in rural areas, large cities and their suburbs continued to vote for Macron’s allies or left-wing parties, highlighting France’s rural-urban divide.
TRANSFORMING ABSTENTIONS INTO VOTES
Reuters analysis showed that the abstention rate in the 2022 parliamentary elections correlated most strongly with the RN’s success in the European vote.
Places where the RN was the first to vote in the EU elections had an average abstention rate of 46% in the first round of the last legislative elections, compared to an average of 39% in cities won by Macron’s centrist party.
Opinion polls project that turnout in these elections will exceed 60%, after just 47.5% in 2022. Requests for proxy votes have risen to more than one million, far above typical levels for this stage of a campaign.
It’s unclear how higher turnout translates into voter support. Historically, many voters have made a tactical choice to exclude the far right, but this dynamic has weakened dramatically.
RISING PRICES, FALLING LIVING STANDARDS
During the 2022 presidential campaign, Le Pen deviated from her traditional, combative anti-immigration rhetoric with a new message to voters: “I will put money in your pockets.”
Le Pen’s party has traditionally outperformed in areas with lower levels of income and education, but this shift in focus to more conventional concerns – high inflation and falling living standards – has greatly broadened its electoral base.
This time, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege, future Prime Minister Jordan Bardella, told voters that household purchasing power is RN’s number one priority.
The party committed, among other things, to reducing VAT on electricity, heating oil and gasoline, and to reviewing the 2024 budget.
Areas where the RN vote in the EU elections was strongest also tend to have higher unemployment, while social security payments represent a higher percentage of income and life expectancy is lower.
EDUCATION
The far right has achieved its strongest electoral results in the EU in cities with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants, where education levels tend to be lower than in large cities and their suburbs.
In these cities, RN had 38-39% on average, compared to 31% nationally.
Macron has long suffered from the perception that the economic gains resulting from his pro-business reform effort have benefited more educated city dwellers.
At the beginning of his presidency, Macron’s pro-business and pro-wealth policies earned him the nickname “president of the rich”.
Discontent has occasionally boiled over, notably in 2018 when Macron faced months of often violent “yellow vest” street protests. An increase in fuel taxes triggered the revolt, but it turned into a wider rebellion against Macron himself.
CRIME, TRANSPORT AND IMMIGRANTS
Although the RN is tough on law and order, crime rates are lower where it has done well than where Macron’s party or the far-left Unsubmissive France have emerged victorious.
Armed robberies in areas where the Renaissance came first were almost three times more frequent than in areas where the RN came first.
Cities where RN scored well also have higher homeownership rates, attract less new home construction and have longer commuting distances, meaning these workers have been more vulnerable to price shocks. of fuels in the last two years.
The average commute was twice as long in areas where the RN came first than in areas where Macron’s party led, according to Reuters calculations.
Despite RN’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, the areas where it has fared best have, on average, a much lower proportion of immigrants in the local population.
(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Richard Lough and Kevin Liffey)
