What if India and China find common ground?

London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off limits. But even in this dynamic city – and in Washington too – it is almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform Party in the United Kingdom, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a “complete impasse.” People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda.”

In India, we often hear that we do not cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope we suggest a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) is not seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 appears to have subsided. We are buying more Chinese goods now than ever before. By 2023, our bilateral trade has reached more than 136 billion dollars. Let us hope that even those who burned Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi after the border clashes are now more open to the idea.

Of course, it may seem crazy to suggest that India and China become trusted partners, like the US and India, or Russia and China. But it’s not entirely out of the question.

Main geopolitical changes

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows this. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, we get the sense that they are open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even recently wondered why India doesn’t try to cast its spell on the dragon through the soft power of Bollywood.

Both countries have a responsibility to lift millions of their 2.8 billion inhabitants out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China come together and build on each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics.

Read | Modi-Hasina should worry about China, but not too much

The US and its allies may be shocked and deeply concerned by a close partnership between India and China. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries, as it aligns with its strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would applaud if this happened.

So can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Professor Mahbubani believes that although the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says that the 21st century belongs to the CIA countries (China, India and ASEAN). With US power declining, these countries will drive global economic growth.

A rollercoaster ride

The idea of ​​India and China being close friends is not new. Historically, they have acted like quarrelsome neighbors who repeatedly fight and make up. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back more than two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade and Buddhism, which began in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid the foundations of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation from Western powers, fostering a feeling of shared struggle.

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border problems with China and continues to strain their relationship. At the beginning of the 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, summed up in the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, especially in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain controversial problems.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was naturally inclined towards engagement with China. As chief minister of Gujarat, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As prime minister, he visited China twice and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

On the other hand, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed with caution by China. The Galwan Valley clash in 2020 exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s dreams in Shanghai

Many young people in India may not know that not so long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in every sphere. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a megaproject to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organization that includes some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies to transform Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. Although the Mumbai transformation project is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China is revamping its military and India should not take it lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will overtake those of Germany and Japan to become the third largest in the world by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, although it feeds almost the same number of people. of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 was $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 billion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that has not been matched by any regime in history. India has also managed to significantly reduce poverty. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaboration on economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to remain a reliable partner in its efforts to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China could work in its favor. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives.

India knows that neighbors with shared borders may sometimes fight, but they can still continue to believe in the saying “love thy neighbor”.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior Indian journalist based in London with three decades of experience with Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author