Iran’s attack on Israel could be bad for Russia’s war in Ukraine

• Iran’s attack on Israel could have an impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

• Iran is an important arms supplier and economic partner of Russia.

• A broader conflict in the Middle East could also increase China’s regional influence at Russia’s expense.

Iran attack on Israel on Saturday It’s bad not just for the Middle East, but also for Russia’s war in Ukraine, as new divisions emerge between Moscow and Tehran.

Michelle Grisé, senior policy researcher at Rand, an American think tank, described in a commentary how a broader conflict in the Middle East could impact Russia. The comment was first published on The National Interest magazine on April 11th – days before Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel on April 13th.

Grisé’s piece followed a attack on Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1st. Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but Iran held it responsible and promised retaliation.

“Although it has been argued that Moscow benefits from chaos in the Middle East – diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine – risks losing a lot if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a wider war,” Grisé wrote.

Russia has been establishing itself as military and diplomatic player in the Middle East for years.

Moscow capitalized on the instability in Syria It is Libya establish itself as a guarantor of regional security, but an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would not have the same effect, wrote Grisé.

This is partly due to Moscow’s concern about the war in Ukraine, Grisé wrote. Russia’s partnership with Iran has also deepened over the past two years as Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy has become increasingly isolated.

Iran is now a critical military supplier to Russia. One Iranian “ghost fleet” it has also transported Russian oil around the world since the start of the war in Ukraine, keeping Moscow’s oil revenues flowing.

However, if Iran finds itself involved in a wider conflict, it will not be able to provide the same level of support to Russia.

“A broader regional conflict, especially if it involves a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, would limit Iran’s ability to continue to serve as Russia’s military supplier,” Grisé wrote.

Furthermore, “Tehran may require more support when Russia has limited capacity to provide it,” he added.

O Group of Seven, or G7, nations is already considering additional sanctions against Iran following its attack on Israel – which could Overflow to Russia.

“We will reflect on additional sanctions against Iran in close cooperation with our partners, specifically on its drone and missile programs,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said in a statement on Sunday.

A wider conflict in the Middle East could increase China’s influence in the region at Moscow’s expense

Although Russia is concerned about the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has still managed to position himself as a potential power broker in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.

But Putin’s plan could fall apart if the war spreads regionally, as Beijing also strives to play the role of peacemaker.

“Russia would be especially sensitive to Chinese attempts to usurp its influence in the Middle East,” Grisé wrote in his comment.

This is especially true because Beijing managed to present results in March 2023, brokering a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Grisé added.

Since Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy already dependent on China, it would be even more exposed to Beijing’s whims if Moscow were unable to maintain whatever shred of global influence it still has.

On a statement on Sunday, The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed “extreme concern” about what it called “another dangerous escalation” in the region.

Calling for restraint, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it expects regional states to “resolve existing problems through political and diplomatic means.”

Read the original article at Business Insider