An early election was called after a deadly helicopter crash. A candidate who promises a different approach both at home and abroad. And suddenly there is an element of suspense and unpredictability in Iran as voters go to the polls to choose a new president.
Elections in the Islamic Republic are tightly controlled affairs – candidates are all vetted by an influential committee of clerics before they are allowed to run. And recently voter apathy has been widespread.
But this time there is an unforeseen event: a reformist former heart surgeon and health minister, Massoud Pezeshkian, who has declared “immoral” the actions of Iran’s morality police, which impose strict dress codes on women.
Rules on wearing the hijab are now regularly flouted by women and Mr Pezeshkian, 69, said: “If wearing certain clothes is a sin, behavior towards women and girls is 100 times a greater sin. Nowhere in religion is there permission to confront someone because of their clothes.”
He also promised to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks, hoping to end sanctions that have paralyzed Iran’s economy.
Pezeshkian was publicly supported by two former reformist presidents, Hassan Rouhani It is Mohammed Khatamiand the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif.
His campaign rallies drew growing crowds on the eve of voting day.
And on Thursday two candidates dropped out of the race – in an apparent attempt by the clerical establishment to avoid splitting the conservative vote.
The most recent opinion polls showed Pezeshkian ahead of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and now speaker of parliament, and Saeed Jalili, a hard-line former nuclear negotiator.
Conservatives oppose engagement with the West and argue that Iran can succeed despite sanctions.
Another candidate remains in the race to replace Ebrahim Raisi – the hard-liner who died on a misty mountain last month in a helicopter crash which also killed seven other people.
Turnout numbers are seen as a key test of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.
They reached historic lows in the parliamentary elections in March and in the last presidential elections of 2021.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – which is the highest authority in Iran – called for “maximum” participation. And a solid core of regime supporters will certainly vote.
But many young and middle-class Iranians are deeply disillusioned and distrustful of any political process organized by the Islamic Republic, and now want an end to 45 years of clerical rule.
“There are a lot of billboards on the streets asking people to ‘vote for a better tomorrow,’ but we just don’t believe in that anymore,” a 20-year-old student from Tehran told me via text message. “Nobody wants to vote anymore.”
Since the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in moral police custody in 2022 – and the national uprising it triggered – the gulf between Iran’s leaders and its people has widened dramatically.
The brutal crackdown on protesters has hardened hatred of the regime, especially among Generation Z.
The hopes placed on reformists in the past have been repeatedly dashed. And over the past few years, those who want to reform the system have been increasingly marginalized.
Former President Hassan Rouhani was not even allowed to stand as a candidate in the recent elections for an influential body, the Assembly of Experts, whose function is to appoint the Supreme Leader.
Many Iranians have lost hope that any meaningful change will be achieved through the ballot box.
“I won’t vote this year,” a 70-year-old woman from Tehran, who has previously voted for reformist candidates, told the BBC. “I know nothing will change. The economy is in such a terrible state and a generation of young people now just want to leave Iran.”
Azad (not her real name), a women’s rights activist arrested during the protests, described them as an “election circus”.
“When the puppeteer is a single person called Khamenei, it makes no difference which name comes out of the ballot box,” she told me on a social media app. “At the height of the unrest, people repeatedly shouted this slogan in the streets: ‘Reformist, conservative, the game is over’.”
Some believe the clerical establishment only allowed Pezeshkian to run as part of an effort to increase turnout.
Azad described it as a “game” played by the regime. “We don’t trust them and we don’t want to be manipulated again.”
Several people in Tehran I spoke to in recent days echoed this view.
“It is a duty to vote, but I will not vote,” a law student told the BBC. “Because all the previous elections showed that none of the elected presidents did anything better for the people.”
But others may be drawn to the polling station by the small glimmer of hope for change that Pezeshkian represents for liberal-minded Iranians.
“I will vote for Pezeshkian,” says Maryam, 54, from Tehran. “I believe that change can only come from within Iran – through reforms.”
She likes the fact that his past is not in the security forces and that he is “clean”, with no corruption charges against him.
She also hopes he can improve Iran’s relations with the outside world and believes he will win.
If he does, there will be a huge question mark over how much wiggle room he will have.
“Pezeshkian is a reformer in name only,” says Sanam Vakil of the think tank Chatham House.
“He supports the Islamic Republic and is deeply loyal to the supreme leader. His participation could potentially increase public participation and increase enthusiasm, but one should not expect much more than a difference in tone if he is elected.”
