The rapid election campaign in France has ended and, despite the latest calls not to support the far right, voters appear ready to give the National Rally party a historic victory in the parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that this would trigger “impulses of hatred and aggression”.
But the party Marina LePen and Jordan Bardella, 28, who could be the next prime minister, consolidated his lead in opinion polls.
The National Rally rejected a series of accusations of racism, involving both party members and supporters. The big question now is whether he will be able to obtain an absolute majority in two rounds on the next two Sundays.
They have a significant opportunity, after the June 9 European elections turned most of France’s electoral map dark blue. That was the moment Emmanuel Macron chose to surprise the French people with the decision to call general elections in just three weeks.
The National Rally (RN) is gearing up for a big night on Sunday, with an opinion poll hours before the end of the campaign showing support at 36.5%.
Its candidates hope to win dozens of seats in the National Assembly tonight, with more than 50% of the vote. But the majority of seats will be decided in a second round, on July 7, between two, three or even four candidates.
So opinion polls don’t tell the whole story, and a hastily organized left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, also has its sights set on victory, just a few points behind RN at 29%.
The Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Attal, is in third place, with 20.5%, according to the Ifop survey. He argues that both of the other main blocs are extremist.
No area of mainland France was more supportive of the National Rally in the European vote than L’Aisne, a rural department in the north with just over 50% support.
Since 2022, L’Aisne has had three RN deputies and, in the historic town of Villers-Cotterêts, it has had a National Rally mayor, Franck Briffaut, for a decade.
A party veteran of over 40 years, dating back to his former National Front days under Jean-Marie Le Penhe feels that the path to power has been inevitable, in the same way that Giorgia Meloni won the elections in Italy.
But like many in his party, he will not settle for anything less than an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which would require at least 289 of the 577 parliamentary seats.
“I will not be part of this, because it is a trap prepared by Macron. I am also convinced that if we achieve an absolute majority, he should leave. While he is there, we will not be able to carry out our entire program. Because we need changes to the constitution.”
President Macron has promised that he will not go anywhere until his term ends in 2027, and it is his task to name the next prime minister after the second round of these elections on July 7th.
Jordan Bardella, whose campaign posters have “prime minister” written beneath his name, insists he will not settle for anything less than an absolute majority.
This leaves open the question of who Macron will choose if the RN fails. “It makes no sense for Emmanuel Macron to appoint a prime minister that no one would want,” says constitutional expert Prof Dominique Rousseau. But if there is no absolute majority, he says the president has room for maneuver.
It would usually come from the biggest party, but if they refused, he could look for a consensus figure, who could bring together what’s left of the center-right and center-left.
For now, Jordan Bardella is in charge, announcing during a TV debate two nights ago that he has some kind of “national unity government” in store.
Bardella promised a government with all talents, including as yet unknown “sincere patriots who have the sovereignty of France at heart.” However, he appointed former Conservative leader Eric Ciotti, who alienated most of his colleagues when he entered into an alliance with RN.
It may not sound convincing, and the prospect of power-sharing – or “cohabitation” – with President Macron sounds like a highly difficult three years in French politics.
The head of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, has already increased tensions by appearing to question the president’s role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces as merely “honorary”.
The intensity of this electoral campaign, and its importance, led the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, to warn of the risk of the “ultra-left and ultra-right” trying to sow chaos after both rounds of the elections. He asked local mayors to exercise vigilance.
Far from the stormy politics of Paris. A Greens activist handed out leaflets to a handful of passersby in the northern town of Soissons, run by a National Rally MP for the past two years.
He complained that the RN had done nothing for this ancient and now disadvantaged city since he took office.
On the main shopping street, people still refer to the party as the National Front, despite Marine Le Pen’s efforts to reform her party and abandon its former image of racism and anti-Semitism.
Jonathan says that the RN is no different from its predecessor, but he is not overly concerned: “There are blockages in the Assembly, in the Constitution, so it is not as if they are going to start a dictatorship here”.
One mother said that living as a black family in a nearby village, it was worrying that the RN vote was so high: “It’s huge. We didn’t expect the RN to win the most votes in L’Aisne.”
She also believes that the far right will have difficulty changing the Constitution, but is more concerned about their rhetoric.
One of RN’s main platforms is “National Priority”, restricting social welfare to French citizens, along with energy tax reductions and income tax exemptions for under-30s.
The party also claims that dozens of sensitive and strategic jobs would not be open to citizens with dual nationality in France, who represent around 5% of the population.
An outgoing MP suggested that the appointment of Moroccan-born former education minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem had been “a mistake”.
Marine Le Pen quickly slapped him in the face, but it is clear that the issue of the 3.3 million French citizens with a second nationality will not go away.
“We are not really in favor of dual nationality,” Mayor Franck Briffaut told the BBC in Villers-Cotterêts, emphasizing that this was just his personal opinion.
“It’s like bigamy. We are in a civilization where you cannot have bigamy. I don’t have dual citizenship – you belong to one or the other. You can’t love two countries – just like you can’t marry two women.”
