The French far-right National Rally (RN) appears to maintain a clear lead in the first round of early national elections for control of the lower house of parliament, according to first projections.
President Emmanuel MacronThe centrist alliance Ensemble (Together), led by his Renaissance party, appeared to be stumbling to a third place in the first round of voting, according to preliminary results released by broadcasters TF1 and France 2 shortly after polls closed on Sunday.
The RN, alongside its far-right allies, obtained 34% to 34.2% of the votes. The left-wing alliance Nova Frente Popular came in second place with 28.1% to 29.1%.
Macron’s Ensemble came in third place, with 20.3% to 21.5%, according to broadcasters.
The number of seats that the blocs will obtain in the National Assembly will only be decided in the second round of elections, on July 7.
The result is almost certainly a bitter defeat for Macron, who gambled that early elections would increase the relative majority held by his party and its allies in the lower house.
This now seems extremely unlikely. If, according to predictions, neither side obtains an absolute majority, France will face tough negotiations to form a coalition government.
Security forces in France prepared for the possibility of unrest in some of the country’s main cities on the night of the first round of voting.
Initial forecasts project that the right-wing populists of Marine Le Pen and her allies could become the strongest force in the lower house, with 230 to 280 seats. However, they may fall short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.
The far left could also make gains and reach 125 to 200 seats. Macron’s supporters risk falling to just 60 to 100 seats.
However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed.
Before the second round of voting, parties can still form local alliances that will influence the outcome of the election.
Candidates who obtain an absolute majority in the first round are elected to the assembly, but in most constituencies the winner will only emerge after the second round, on July 7.
Possible problems for Macron
Macron called early elections after the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, made big gains in European Parliament elections earlier this month.
Macron’s term runs until 2027 and his position is not at stake, but the results could have important implications for the rest of his term and reshape French politics.
If the RN obtains a majority in the 577-member National Assembly, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from his ranks to guarantee a stable Cabinet.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences.
The National Assembly is one of the two chambers of the French parliament. It is involved in legislation and can bring down the government with a vote of no confidence.
If a bloc other than Macron’s centrist camp obtained an absolute majority, Macron would de facto be forced to appoint a prime minister from his ranks. There would then be so-called cohabitation.
Macron’s power would decrease significantly and the prime minister would gain relative power.
Right-wing nationalists explicitly aim to win elections and assume governmental responsibility. RN leader Bardella is expected to become prime minister, replacing Macron’s current Attal.
Europe looks
The elections are being watched with interest in Brussels and Berlin.
German companies are worried about the consequences of the elections if the extreme right or the extreme left come to power.
“When analyzing economic policy announcements from the right and the left, German and French companies reach the same conclusion: France’s attractiveness would be harmed,” said Patrick Brandmaier, director general of the Franco-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, in Paris.
Macron’s second and final term ends in 2027. A sharp decline in support for his Renaissance-led bloc will certainly limit his effectiveness.
Le Pen, from the National Rally, is seen as a serious candidate in the next presidential elections.
