French far right ahead in 1st round of snap elections. Here’s how runoff works and what comes next

PARIS — French voters face a decisive decision on July 7 in the second round of elections. early parliamentary elections that could mean the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation of World War II, or no majority emerging at all.

Projections from polling agencies suggest the far-right National Rally party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain amid the complex voting system.

In the first round on Sunday, the National Rally came out on top with about a third of the votes. He New Popular Front coalition which includes center-left, green and far-left forces came in second position, ahead of the president Emmanuel Macron centrist alliance.

Here’s a closer look:

The French system is complex and not proportional to national support for a party. Legislators are elected by district.

More than 60 candidates who received at least 50% of the vote on Sunday have been directly elected.

Additionally, the top two contenders, along with anyone who has won the support of more than 12.5% ​​of registered voters, are qualified for the runoff.

In many districts, three people made it to the second round, although some tactics to block far-right candidates have already been announced: the left coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in the districts when they came in third place to support other politicians opposed to the extreme right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would resign before the second round to block the National Assembly.

This makes the outcome of the second round uncertain, even though polls show that the National Rally party has a good chance of obtaining an absolute majority, that is, at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two chambers of the French parliament. He has the final say in the law-making process in the conservative-dominated Senate.

Macron has a presidential term until 2027, and said he wouldn’t quit before the end of his mandate.

If the National Rally or another political force other than its centrist alliance obtains a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister who belongs to that new majority.

In such a situation (called “cohabitation” in France), the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.

The modern Republic of France has experienced three cohabitations, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac and socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.

The prime minister is accountable to parliament, heads the government and introduces bills.

“In the case of coexistence, the policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

The president is weakened at home during the coexistence, but still has some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.

“It is possible that the president prevents or temporarily suspends the execution of a certain number of the President of the Government’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign the Government’s ordinances or decrees,” Garrigues added.

“However, the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus overcoming the president’s reluctance,” he noted.

During previous coexistences, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who was usually able to reach compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

However, today, the views of the far-right and far-left coalition in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would probably be an issue of tension during a possible coexistence.

According to the Constitution, while “the president is the head of the military, it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues stated.

“Also in the diplomatic sphere, the president’s perimeter is considerably restricted,” Garrigues added.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he intends “to be a cohabitation prime minister who is respectful of the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but do not make concessions on the policies that we will implement.”

Bardella said that if he became prime minister, They oppose the sending of French troops to Ukraine – a possibility that Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said that he would reject French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of attacking targets within Russia itself.

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly; this was the case with Macron’s own centrist alliance from 2022.

However, the National Rally has already said it would reject that option, because it would mean that a far-right government could soon be overthrown by a vote of no confidence if other political parties joined in.

The president could try to build a broad left-right coalition, an option that seems unlikely given the political divergences.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal hoped on Sunday to have enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “republican forces,” which may include those from the center left and center right.

Experts say another complex option would be to appoint “a government of experts” not affiliated with political parties but that would still need to be accepted by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mainly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If the political talks drag on too long in the middle of the summer holidays and the elections from July 26 to August. eleven Olympic Games in ParisGarrigues said a “transitional period” was not ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government “will still be in charge of current affairs,” pending new decisions.

“Whatever the National Assembly, it appears that the Constitution of the Fifth Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “Institutions are stronger than they seem, even when faced with this experimental exercise.”

“However, another unknown remains in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.