BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is concerned about the outcome of the second round of elections in France.
Scholz, who normally remains silent when asked about domestic politics in other European countries, has more than once expressed concern in recent weeks that the far-right nationalist party National Rally could win the second round of elections in neighboring France on Sunday.
Earlier this week, the staunchly pro-European German chancellor even revealed that he and Embattled French President Emmanuel Macron They text daily as the election approaches.
“We are discussing the situation, which is really depressing,” Scholz said Tuesday at a summer meeting of his Social Democratic Party in Berlin, according to the German news agency dpa.
“In any case, I keep my fingers crossed that the French, whom I love and appreciate so much, the country that means so much to me, manage to prevent a government led by a right-wing populist party,” Scholz added. in an unusually emotional way.
The German chancellor’s concerns may be well-founded. If the French elect a far-right nationalist government at the weekend, Franco-German ties are likely to deteriorate, with effects across the European Union, experts say.
The specter of a far-right government in France emerges after the European Parliament elections last month It strengthened far-right parties in general, although their performance varied from country to country. In Germany, the The far-right Alternative for Germany also rose.
Several European Union countries, such as Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden, have shifted to the right in national elections, as voters voted for Eurosceptic parties that promise nationalist solutions to European issues such as inflation, migration and the economy. . Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine which has attracted millions of refugees seeking refuge.
Germany and France, the EU’s two largest economies, have long been seen as the driving force of European integration. The two countries at the heart of Europe have overcome hundreds of years of war and animosity and, after the end of World War II, built a close relationship on many different levels.
Both countries are also founding members of the European Union, which was created largely to prevent a new war between Germany and France given their bellicose history.
Generations of high school students have participated in exchange programs, there are city-to-city partnerships, regular bilateral government consultations, joint weapons projects, and, not to forget, countless binational Franco-German families living in both countries.
However, the National Rally follows a “France first” policy. He wants to move away from the close partnership between France and Germany, experts say, which would be a radical change after decades of close and celebrated friendship.
Although the leaders of the two countries have had political differences in the past over issues such as how strongly to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia, until now they have always tried to coordinate their positions on the EU and foreign policy.
“Franco-German relations are really unique in international politics in terms of cooperation and intensity,” says Ronja Kempin, analyst of Franco-German relations at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Therefore, it is not surprising that “in Berlin, people are particularly nervous now about the fact that the National Rally in France could represent a party with a large majority in parliament that is very critical of Germany, perhaps even hostile towards Germany,” he added.
Although Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally party He said last month that if he becomes prime minister of France after the election, he hopes “to have the occasion and the opportunity to speak with the German chancellor,” and also stressed that he would defend his country’s interests and sees Scholz as a political rival.
Germany, which is the EU’s most populous country and has the continent’s largest economy, is often perceived by its European neighbors as overwhelming and too dominant in the 27-nation bloc. Populist parties in particular have been using this sentiment to irritate their voters.
If a future far-right French government joined that chorus of nationalists, no longer singing the same anthem as Berlin, that would have repercussions for the entire EU, says Jacob Ross, an expert on Franco-German relations at the German Council of External relationships.
“Many EU projects could be blocked,” he says, adding that future cooperation on European financial and banking policies and European arms projects, as well as day-to-day collaboration at the EU administrative level, could be affected.
The future expansion of the EU, which Scholz has been advocating, could also be in doubt, Ross said.
“The National Rally is certainly not in favor of a rapid expansion of the EU towards the Western Balkans, much less towards Ukraine or Georgia,” he added.
Despite the potentially bleak outlook, some veteran European politicians think Franco-German relations are too strong to fail.
Martin Schulz, former president of the European Parliament and member of Scholz’s Social Democrats, says the relationship is close and not even a populist government can derail it.
“No French president can do without Germany and, conversely, no German chancellor can do without France,” Schulz told the weekly Der Spiegel on Thursday. “The two countries are too intertwined for that: economically, in terms of monetary policy, socially and culturally.”
“After all these decades of cooperation, no one can flip the switch overnight and undo this connection. Most people in France are also interested in a close relationship with Germany,” she added. “So: Franco-German relations will continue; the question is in what form.”
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Sylvie Corbet contributed reporting from Paris.
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