President Vladimir Putin’s message to NATO was simple and clear: Don’t go too far in providing military support to Ukraine, or you will risk a conflict with Russia that could quickly go nuclear.
Like the war in Ukraine slowly turns in favor of Moscow, Putin declared that he does not need nuclear weapons to achieve his goals. But he also says it’s a mistake for the West to assume Russia will never use them.
“It should not be treated lightly and superficially,” Putin said in June. reaffirming that Russia’s nuclear doctrine calls for the use of atomic weapons if it perceives a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Moscow’s nuclear message, which comes as NATO allies try to shore up their exhausted countries and outgunned ukrainian forces – foreshadows what could become the most dangerous phase of the war.
Moscow has carried out drills with its tactical (or battlefield) nuclear weapons in southern Russia and with its ally Belarus, where some were deployed in 2023. Russian Defense Ministry videos showed Iskander missile launchers, nuclear-capable fighter jets and sea-launched missiles.
The Kremlin described the exercises as a response to the West considering deploying NATO troops to Ukraine and allowing Kiev to use longer-range weapons for limited attacks on Russian territory.
“Reliance on nuclear threats and signals is a long-standing trend in Russia’s activities amid the war in ukraine”said Heather Williams, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Russian leaders may be assuming they have more at stake in Ukraine than NATO, and nuclear threats are a way of signaling their commitment to winning the war in the hopes of fending off Western intervention.”
Since launching the invasion on February 24, 2022, Putin has repeatedly referred to Russia’s nuclear power to discourage Western intervention. The United States and NATO criticized the nuclear saber-rattling but said they have not seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture that would justify a response.
After early setbacks in Ukraine, Putin said Moscow was prepared to use “all means” to protect Russian territory, fueling fears that it could resort to tactical nuclear weapons to stop kyiv’s advances. Putin later toned down his rhetoric after Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to achieve its goals.
Amid Russia’s recent military successes, Putin said Moscow does not need nuclear weapons to win in Ukraine. At the same time, however, he warned that kyiv’s attacks on Russian soil with longer-range weapons supplied by the West would mark a major escalation because they would involve Western military and intelligence personnel, something the West denies.
“Representatives of NATO members, particularly in the small countries of Europe, should be aware of what they are playing with,” he said, adding that they could be wrong to trust in the protection of the United States if Russia attacks them.
“The continued escalation could have serious consequences,” he said. “If these serious consequences reach Europe, how will the United States act in view of our parity in strategic weapons? Hard to say. Do you want a global conflict?
In May, Russian radar facilities were attacked by Ukrainian drones. One of them damaged a radar in the southern Krasnodar region, according to satellite images. Another pointed to a similar facility in the southern Urals, about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) east of the border.
Both are part of Russia’s early warning system to detect ICBM launches thousands of kilometers (miles) away. Moscow and Washington rely on these systems to track each other’s launches.
Along with previous Ukrainian raids against Russian nuclear-capable bomber bases, the radar attacks could qualify as triggers for the use of atomic weapons under Moscow’s nuclear doctrine. Russian hawks urged the Kremlin to respond forcefully.
At a June forum in St. Petersburg, Kremlin-linked foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov urged Putin to “point a nuclear gun at our Western adversaries” to achieve victory in Ukraine.
Putin responded cautiously and said he saw There are no security threats that justify the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.. At the same time, he indicated that Moscow was considering changes to its nuclear doctrine.
Since the war began, hawks have urged a review of doctrine, which says Moscow could use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional weapons attack that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. Some of them argue that the threshold is too high, leaving the West with the impression that the Kremlin will never touch its nuclear arsenal.
Foreign affairs analyst Dmitri Trenin of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a Moscow think tank that advises the Kremlin, urged changing doctrine to declare that Russia could use nuclear weapons first when “core national interests are at stake.” game”, as in Ukraine. .
“It is important to persuade the ruling elites in the United States and in the West as a whole that they will not be able to remain comfortable and completely protected after provoking a conflict with Russia,” Trenin said.
As the West allowed Ukraine to attack Russian territory, Putin threatened to respond by providing weapons to Western adversaries around the world. He underscored the message in June by signing a Mutual defense pact with North Korea.indicating that Moscow could begin arms deliveries to Pyongyang.
He also declared that Moscow would begin producing intermediate-range missiles banned under a Cold War-era pact that Washington and Moscow scrapped in 2019. The Kremlin did not say where Moscow might deploy the new weapons that were banned under the Agreement. 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which banned ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles).
These nuclear-capable missiles are considered particularly destabilizing because they can reach targets faster than ICBMs, leaving decision makers virtually no time and increasing the likelihood of global nuclear war from a false launch warning.
The hawks urged Putin to quickly ascend an “escalation ladder” to force the West to back down.
The battlefield nuclear weapons exercise was one such measure, Trenin said, while another could be an atomic test in the Russian Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya. Putin has left the door open to resuming such tests, which are prohibited under a global pact signed by Russia, although he noted that “there is no need for it yet.”
Some Russian military experts said Moscow could declare a no-fly zone over the Black Sea to curb U.S. intelligence flights that help Ukraine attack targets in Russia. At the end of June, the The Ministry of Defense threatened to take unspecified measures against American drones there.
Trenin and other experts said possible escalation measures could include cyberattacks on U.S. and European infrastructure, conventional attacks on Western troops, if any of them go to Ukraine, and attacks on military supply centers for kyiv in the territory. of NATO members. US military bases could also be targeted, they said.
At the top of the ladder, Russia could threaten nuclear strikes against NATO targets in Europe to “sober up the enemy and force it to participate in talks,” Trenin suggested.
“Active nuclear deterrence means the possibility of using nuclear weapons first in the ongoing conflict, not necessarily on the battlefield or on the territory of Ukraine,” he said. “The enemy should have no doubt: Russia will not allow itself to be defeated or prevented from achieving its stated objectives by keeping nuclear weapons out of the conflict.”
___
The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
This story originally appeared on ABCNews.go.com read the full story
