France votes on Sunday in one of the most significant elections in recent years, with the far right hoping for a historic victory, but political impasse is the most likely outcome.
This is the first time that the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) of Marina LePen It is Jordan Bardela had a realistic opportunity to lead the government and take full control of the National Assembly.
But after the RN’s victory in the first round in last Sunday’s early parliamentary elections, hundreds of rival candidates withdrew to give others a better opportunity to defeat the far right.
Voting begins in mainland France at 08:00 (06:00 GMT) and the first polls will be released 12 hours later.
Whatever the outcome, it is difficult to see the President Emmanuel Macron coming out of it well.
Four weeks ago, he said it was the responsible solution to call an early vote in response to RN’s victory in the European elections, minutes after party leader Jordan Bardella, 28, challenged him to do so.
The two-round election was a shock for a country preparing for the start of the Paris Olympics on July 26. Security was already strict and now 30,000 police officers were mobilized during a period of greater political tension.
There are fears of violence in Paris and other French cities, whatever the outcome of the vote, and a planned protest in front of the National Assembly on Sunday night was banned.
In Dreux, a historic center on the road to Normandy, Sunday’s vote falls on the day of the Olympic flame crossing. “For us it’s something huge, bigger than the elections”, says Pauline at the tourist office.
The flame has been traveling across France for almost two months and Dreux has planned a weekend of festivities to mark its arrival.
“Macron should have waited until after the Olympics,” Dreux resident Antoine told the BBC.
Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez believes that the president did not just destroy his mandate and open the doors of power to the far right. “He compromised the functioning of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, which could deal a final blow to France’s credit and image,” he wrote in Le Point on the eve of the vote.
The constituency that includes Dreux is one of the races to watch in the second round of this election.
Candidates such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already won their seats, obtaining more than half of the votes. But another 500 races are being decided in a second round, most involving two or three candidates.
Former conservative minister Olivier Marleix was defeated in the first round by far-right candidate Olivier Dubois. Both qualified for the second round, along with a candidate from the left-wing New Popular Front, who is in second place nationally.
But as Nadia Faveris was narrowly defeated by her Conservative rival and came third, she withdrew from the race “to block the National Rally”.
One voter, Morgan, was skeptical that anything would change in the city, regardless of who won.
There were 217 such withdrawals across France, including 130 candidates from the Popular Front and 81 from the president’s Ensemble alliance.
And that has dramatically changed the balance of this crucial general election.
Projections after Sunday’s first round gave RN a chance of securing an absolute majority of 289 seats, but final opinion polls on Friday suggest this is now out of reach, with 205 to 210 seats a potential maximum. .
The parties trying to block a victory for the RN range from the radical left, communists and greens, to the centrists and conservatives Macron. They say they defend the Fifth Republic from the extreme policies of the far right.
The National Rally has diluted many of its policies, but still wants to give French citizens “national preference” over immigrants in terms of employment and housing. Its aim is to abolish the right to automatic citizenship for children of immigrants who have spent five years between the ages of 11 and 18 in France. It also wants to ban dual nationals from dozens of sensitive jobs.
Opinion polls are not necessarily reliable. Each of the 500 elections is a local contest and voters do not follow the recommendations of political parties.
If the RN managed to win more than 250 seats, it could look for allies to form a minority government. President Macron’s party had to make do with similar numbers until he became frustrated with his limited ability to pass reforms in parliament.
This type of government in RN is unlikely, believes professor Armin Steinbach, from the HEC business school, in Paris. He would soon face a vote of no confidence, he believes, and according to the Constitution, France cannot hold another general election for at least another year.
Another potential scenario is a “grand coalition” that would involve most other parties, except the radical France Insubmissa (LFI) party, which the Macron alliance and conservatives reject as extremist.
This idea has gained some momentum in recent days, but the leader of the Greens, Marine Tondelier, has made it clear that “there will not be a Macronist prime minister”, no matter what happens.
There is also talk of a technocratic government, similar to those that governed Italy during the eurozone debt crisis. But instead of choosing experts from outside politics, you could include politicians with proven experience in specific fields.
In any case, France is entering uncharted territory, says Jean-Yves Dormagen, from the Cluster 17 institute.
President Macron himself said that he does not intend to resign and that he will continue to serve his last three years in office.
“We will have Macron as a lame-duck president who created this mess without having to,” Professor Steinbach told the BBC. “And he is losing legitimacy.”
The immediate concern for France is having some kind of government during the Olympic Games.
Constitutional expert Benjamin Morel believes the president could form a government of national unity by the end of the Paris Games.
“This would give the parties time to reach an agreement between now and the start of the school year and the next budget,” he told Le Figaro.
