PARIS — The expected political failure of French President Emmanuel Macron in decisive parliamentary elections Sunday could paralyze the country, weaken it abroad and overshadow its legacy, just as France prepares to enter the global spotlight as host of the Paris Olympic Games.
The youngest president in French history is known on the international stage for his tireless diplomatic efforts and pro-European initiatives. Now, many wonder how he will manage to maintain the reins of the country, probably without a majority in parliament and with a confrontational government. Macron, 46, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term in 2027, faces a fight not to become an outgoing duck.
Whatever the outcome of Sunday’s runoff, it is not expected to be good news for Macron. French media have recently described an “end of reign” atmosphere in the Elysée presidential palace. Polls suggest Macron’s centrist alliance is heading for defeat in Sunday’s runoff, after coming third in the first round.
“It seems as if in the first vote the French wanted to punish their president,” Paris-based political analyst Dominique Moïsi told the Associated Press.
If the far-right National Rally party and its allies win a majority in parliament, it would put the centrist president in the uncomfortable position of having to work with a nationalist, anti-immigration prime minister. Otherwise, Macron may have to find a way to form a functioning government, possibly offering a deal to his left-wing rivals. In any case, he would no longer be able to implement his own plans, which have been based on pro-business policies aimed at boosting the French economy.
“We are in the unknown. The unknown, the unknown,” said Moïsi. “Because coalition governments are not a French tradition.”
Abroad, Macron often appeared as a key global player known for his relentless diplomatic activism. He has been deeply involved in the Western measures taken to support Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. In the Middle East, France has been pushing for diplomatic efforts with its Arab partners. Earlier this year, Macron also highlighted his vision of the European Unionurging the 27-nation bloc to build its own strong defense and undertake major trade and economic reforms to compete with China and the United States.
The French Constitution grants the president some powers on foreign policy, European affairs and defence. But the division of power with a prime minister from a rival party remains unclear, and without government backing, Macron’s role may end up being limited.
The position of president is Macron’s first elected position. When he was 30, Macron quit his job as a banker at Rothschild to become economic advisor to Socialist President Francois Hollande, working for two years alongside Hollande in the presidential palace. Then, as economy minister in Hollande’s government from 2014 to 2016, he promoted a package of measures, notably allowing more shops to open on Sundays and evenings and opening up regulated sectors of the economy.
First elected president in 2017 after leaving the Socialists, Macron was then a successful 39-year-old rookie politician. He tried to make the labor market more flexible and passed new rules to make it harder for the unemployed to claim benefits. His government also reduced taxes on businesses to boost hiring.
Anti-government yellow vest protests soon erupted against perceived social injustice, leading to Macron being dubbed the “president of the rich.” Many still perceive him as arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people. His left-wing opponents accused him of destroying worker protections. Macron argued that unemployment has fallen from more than 10% to 7.5% currently and that France has been ranked as the most attractive European country for foreign investment in recent years.
Macron was re-elected in 2022, defeating his far-right rival Marine Le Pen for the second consecutive time in the second round of the presidential election. But he lost his parliamentary majority, even though his centrist alliance won the majority of seats in the National Assembly. He then fought to pass an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, sparking months of mass protests that damaged his leadership. unrest destroyed hundreds of citiescities and towns in 2023, following the police shooting of a teenager.
Politically, the centrist leader launched his own party promising to do better than the dominant right and left. But that too now seems destined for failure. His call for early elections actually galvanized two main forces: the far-right National Rally and a broad left coalition that included the Socialists, the Greens and the far-left France Insoumise.
Macron’s own camp questioned the president’s political skills after he announced the surprise decision to dissolve the National Assembly last month. Bruno Le Maire, his finance minister for seven years, told France Inter radio that “this decision has created – in our country, in the French people, everywhere – concern, incomprehension and, at times, anger.” . Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, accused him of having “killed” his centrist majority.
Macron’s fate may become a topic of discussion next week at a NATO summit in Washington that will be the occasion for world leaders to meet with The new British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer..
“The paradox of the current situation is that, as a result of the last two elections in Britain and France, there will be more Britain and less France at the NATO summit,” Moïsi said. “The strongest personality will be the new prime minister of Great Britain. And the weakest personality will be the president of France.”
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AP journalist Oleg Cetinic contributed to this report.
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