PARIS — Voting will take place on Sunday in mainland France in a crucial second round that could give a historic victory to Marine Le Pen. national far-right demonstration and its introspective and anti-immigrant vision, or produce a parliament without consensus and political stagnation.
French President Emmanuel Macron took a big risk by dissolving parliament and calling elections after his centrists were defeated in the June 9 European elections.
Early elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in ukraineglobal diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and will almost certainly undermine Macron during the remaining three years of his presidency.
The first round, on June 30, saw the biggest gains ever made by the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen.
Just over 49 million people are registered to vote in the election, which will determine which party controls the 577-member National Assembly, the influential lower house of the French parliament, and who will be prime minister. If support for Macron’s weak centrist majority erodes further, he will be forced to share power with parties that oppose most of his pro-business and pro-European Union policies.
Voters at a Paris polling station were acutely aware of the far-reaching consequences for France and beyond.
“What is at stake today are individual freedoms, tolerance and respect for others,” said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising.
Racism and antisemitism have tarnished the electoral campaign, along with Russian cyber campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked, something very unusual in France. The government will deploy 30,000 police officers on voting day.
The rise in tensions comes as France celebrates a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious events. Olympic GamesThe national soccer team reached the Euro 2024 semi-final championship, and the Tour de France tours the entire country with the Olympic torch.
At noon local time, turnout was 26.63%, according to France’s Interior Ministry, slightly higher than the 25.90% reported at the same time during last Sunday’s first round.
During the first round, the turnout of almost 67% was the highest since 1997, ending almost three decades of growing voter apathy towards legislative elections and, for a growing number of French people, towards politics in general.
Macron cast his vote in the coastal town of La Touquet, along with his wife Brigitte. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal voted previously in the Paris suburb of Vanves.
Le Pen will not vote because her district in northern France will not hold a second round after she won the seat last week. Across France, 76 other candidates won seats in the first round, including 39 from his National Rally and 32 from the leftist New Popular Front alliance. Two candidates from Macron’s centrist list also won their seats in the first round.
The elections will conclude on Sunday at 8:00 p.m. (6:00 p.m. GMT) in mainland France and on the island of Corsica. Initial poll projections are expected Sunday night, and the first official results are expected Sunday night and early Monday.
Voters residing in the Americas and the French overseas territories of Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and French Polynesia voted on Saturday.
The elections could leave France with its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella he becomes prime minister. The party emerged victorious in the first round of voting the previous week, followed by a coalition of centre-left, far-left and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.
Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old businessman, was worried about whether the elections would lead to an effective government.
“This is a concern for us,” Lubin said. “Will it be a technical government or a coalition government formed by (several) political forces?”
He the outcome remains very uncertain. Polls between the two rounds suggest that the National Rally can win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but falls short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. That would still make history, if a party with historical ties to xenophobia and Holocaust minimization, and long seen as a pariah, becomes France’s biggest political force.
If he wins the majority, Macron would be forced to share power with a prime minister who deeply disagrees with the president’s domestic and foreign policies, in an uneasy arrangement known in France as “cohabitation.”
Another possibility is that no party has a majority, which would result in a hung parliament. That could lead Macron to enter coalition negotiations with the center-left or name a technocratic government with no political affiliations.
Whatever happens, Macron’s centrist camp will be forced to share power. Many of the candidates in his alliances lost in the first round or withdrew, meaning he does not have enough candidates to come close to the majority he had in 2017, when he was first elected president, or the plurality he obtained in the elections. 2022. legislative vote.
Both would be unprecedented for modern France and would make it harder for the European Union’s second-largest economy to make bold decisions to arm Ukraine, reform labor laws or reduce its huge deficit. Financial markets have been nervous since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing early elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in the presidential election. European Parliament elections.
Regardless of what happens, Macron said he will not resign and will remain president until his term ends in 2027.
Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated by low incomes and a political leadership in Paris seen as elitist and unconcerned with the daily struggles of workers. National Rally has connected with those voters, often blaming immigration for France’s problems, and has built broad and deep support over the past decade.
Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions (no longer calling for leaving NATO and the EU) to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values persist. He wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, limit the rights of dual citizens and give police more freedom to use weapons.
With the uncertain outcome looming over the high-stakes election, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert, is pessimistic about France’s future.
“No matter what happens, I think this election is going to leave people everywhere dissatisfied,” Dodeman said.
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Surk reported from Nice, France.
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