Indian Prime Minister Modi makes first visit to ally Russia since the start of its war on Ukraine

The Prime Minister of India begins a two day visit to Russia on Monday, the first since Moscow launched its invasion of ukrainea war that has complicated the relationship between the former allies and brought Russia closer to China, India’s rival.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit will include a meeting with the president Vladimir Putin, whom he last saw in Russia in 2019, in the port of Vladivostok, in the far east. The two leaders also met in person in September 2022 in Uzbekistan, at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization political bloc.

Russia has had strong ties with India. since the Cold War, and New Delhi’s importance as a key trading partner for Moscow has increased since the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022. China and India have become key buyers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by United States and its allies that closed most Western markets to Russian exports.

Under Modi’s leadership, India has avoided condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine, while emphasizing the need for a peaceful solution.

However, the partnership between Moscow and New Delhi has become complicated since Russia began to develop closer ties with India’s main rival, China.due to hostilities in Ukraine.

Modi, in particular, stayed away from the most recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan last week.

Chietigj Bajpaee, senior South Asia researcher at UK-based Chatham House, said India is increasingly moving away from forums in which Russia and China play prominent roles.

“This is evident in India’s relatively low-key presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year, and now in Modi’s decision not to attend this year’s summit,” Bajpaee said.

A clash in June 2020 along the disputed border between China and India dramatically altered their already delicate relationship as rival troops fought with stones, clubs and fists. At least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed. Since then, tensions have persisted despite talks.

Those tensions have seeped into the way New Delhi views Moscow.

“Russia’s relations with China have been a cause of some concern for India in the context of increased Chinese assertiveness in the region,” D. Bala Venkatesh Verma, former Indian ambassador to Russia, told The Associated Press.

But Modi will also seek to continue close relations with Russia, a major trading partner and major defense supplier to India.

Since Western sanctions blocked Russian oil exports after the start of the Ukraine war, India has become a key buyer of Russian oil. According to analysts, it now sources more than 40% of its oil imports from Russia.

India is also Heavy dependence on Russia for military supplies.But with Moscow’s supply line affected by the fighting in Ukraine, India has been diversifying its defense procurement, buying more from the United States, Israel, France and Italy.

“Defense cooperation will clearly be a priority area,” Bajpaee said, adding that 60% of India’s military equipment and systems “are still of Russian origin.”

“We have seen some delays in deliveries of spare parts… following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “I believe both countries should conclude a military logistics agreement, which would pave the way for more defense exchanges.”

India has adopted a neutral stance, neither condemning nor condoning Russia’s war against Ukraine, and has called for negotiations to end the fighting. That, in turn, has fueled Putin’s efforts to counter what he calls Western dominance of global affairs.

Faced with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for actions related to the war in Ukraine, Putin’s trips abroad have been relatively rare in recent years, so Modi’s trip could help the Russian leader improve his image. .

“We see Putin on a nostalgia trip; you know, he was in Vietnam, he was in North Korea,” said Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe and Asia Studies. “In my opinion, he is trying to show that he is not a vassal of China, that he has options and that Russia is still a great power.”

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Putin’s interactions on the world stage show that “he is far from isolated” and that Russia is not a country that should be written off.

Trade development will also feature prominently in the talks, particularly intentions to develop a shipping corridor between the main Indian port of Chennai and Vladivostok, the gateway to Russia’s Far East.

Trade between India and Russia has seen a sharp rise, reaching close to $65 billion in the financial year 2023-24, due to strong energy cooperation, India’s foreign secretary told reporters on Friday. Vinay Mohan Kwatra.

Russia’s imports reached $60 billion and India’s exports $4 billion in the 2023-24 financial year, Kwatra said. India’s financial year runs from April to March.

He said India was trying to correct the trade imbalance with Russia by increasing its exports. India’s major exports to Russia include medicines and pharmaceuticals, telecommunication instruments, iron and steel, marine products and machinery.

Its main imports from Russia include crude oil and petroleum products, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, fertilizers, vegetable oil, gold and silver.

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Pathi reported from New Delhi and Heintz from Tallinn, Estonia. Associated Press writer Ashok Sharma in New Delhi contributed to this report.