The images show that many of the structures are surrounded by large earthen berms.
Washington/Dubai:
Recent satellite images show major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American investigators assessed were to increase missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials.
The expansion of the sites follows an October 2022 agreement in which Iran agreed to supply missiles to Russia, which has sought them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to U.S. officials.
Images taken by commercial satellite company Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both located near Tehran.
The images, analyzed by Reuters, show that many of the structures are surrounded by large earthen berms. These earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to prevent an explosion in a building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.
Expansions began in Khojir in August last year and in Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites.
Iran’s arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say.
Three Iranian officials, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to increase production of conventional ballistic missiles.
“Why shouldn’t we?” said an employee.
A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also allow it to double drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be supplied to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah, the source added.
Reuters was unable to independently confirm the Iranian officials’ comments.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the complex expansion. Tehran has previously denied supplying drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Houthis spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran’s weapons manufacturing would not have any impact on Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran.
Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs images with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington thinktank, as part of a Middlebury project monitoring Iranian missile infrastructure.
“We know that Russia is looking for low-cost missile capabilities, and that was for Iran and North Korea,” Lewis said.
Moscow and Pyongyang have denied transferring North Korean missiles to Russia. The Russian embassy in Washington and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment on this story.
The two U.S. investigators said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photographs what types of missiles would be produced at the new facility, which appeared to still be under construction.
Any increase in missile or drone production in Tehran would be worrying for the United States, which has said Iranian drones help sustain Russia’s attack on Ukrainian cities, and for Israel, which is defending itself against attacks by Iranian-backed groups, including Hezbollah.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the researchers’ analysis.
A spokesperson for the US National Security Council declined to confirm its assessment, adding that the United States has implemented several measures, including sanctions, aimed at restricting the production and exports of Iranian missiles and drones.
Reuters reported in February that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied having supplied the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but assumed Tehran intended to supply missiles to Moscow.
NEW BUILDINGS, DIRT BERMS
Shahid Modarres and Khojir are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite paramilitary organization that plays a central role in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. It controls large segments of the Iranian economy and reports directly to Iran’s supreme leader , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The complexes have long been linked to the development and production of Iran’s short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the country’s space program.
On 12 November 2011, a huge explosion destroyed a large area of Shadid Modarres associated with solid-fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included General Hassan Moqaddam, considered by Iran as the “architect” of its ballistic missile program.
Construction at Shahid Modarres, which resumed after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year, the second Iranian official said.
“I think the Iranians may have chosen not to block the buildings (before the explosion) because they didn’t want to draw attention to them,” Lewis said. “They learned the hard way.”
Eveleth and Lewis said the sites’ long history with Iran’s missile program – Shahid Modarres is considered by some experts to be its birthplace – and numerous earthen berms support their assessment that Tehran is expanding production. of ballistic missiles.
“When we look at where you basically have an entire production line protected like this, it’s usually missiles,” Eveleth said.
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