India’s population is predicted to peak in the early 2060s, at about 1.7 billion, and then decline by 12%.
United Nations:
India’s population is expected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 percent, but the country will remain the most populous in the world throughout the century, stated the United Nations.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released here on Thursday, states that the world population is expected to continue to grow over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s. , up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After reaching the peak, the world population is predicted to begin to gradually decline, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
India, which overtook China as the world’s most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position until 2100.
“India’s population, which is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 percent after peaking in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion.” , states the UN report published by the United Nations Department of Economics. and Social Affairs (DESA), the Population Division said.
According to the report, India’s population in 2024 is projected to be 1.45 billion and will peak at 1.69 billion in 2054. After that, India’s population is predicted to decline to 1.5 thousand. million by the end of the century in 2100, but the country still remains the most populous nation on Earth.
Responding to a PTI question on population projections for India, Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer at the UN DESA Population Division, said in a press conference that “India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and is projected to remain so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion and is expected to increase further to 1.69 billion.
“Its size is assumed to reach its peak around the 2060s and then begin to decline slightly. Thus, by the end of the century, India is expected to have around 1.5 billion inhabitants, but will continue to be the greatest country in the world by a large margin.” The report states that China’s population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million in 2100.
“China, the country currently with the second largest population in the world, is predicted to likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million),” followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million ). “Long-term population projections are more uncertain” for China, he said.
“However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also expected to experience the largest population decline of any country by the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is predicted to has lost more than half of its current population and has returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50 percent probability).”
Responding to a question about the significantly low population projection for China, UN DESA Population Division Director John Wilmoth said “this actually relates to the level of fertility currently observed in China. The current number is around of one birth per woman”. on average over a lifetime.”
“Given that 2.1 births are needed to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they rise slightly, any fertility level if below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you’re really getting into low fertility levels and that produces a long-term decline that is quite significant. And that’s true for China and it’s true for some other countries in this analysis,” Wilmoth said. .
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