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Analysts believe Pakistan may be arming its JF-17 fighter jets with nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
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Suspicions that the JF-17 could be armed with nuclear missiles were speculative until a recent photo.
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India and Pakistan have fought four wars and clashed repeatedly on their border.
The nuclear balance of terror between America and Russia, and now also between America and China, attracts the greatest concern about an atomic apocalypse. But the simmering conflict between India and Pakistan – both nuclear powers – is no less dangerous.
Now there are signs that Pakistan is mounting its own JF-17 fighters with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The JF-17s are replacing aging French-made Mirage jets that Pakistan has contracted for nuclear strike missions, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
“These developments, along with rising tensions in the region, have raised concerns about an accelerating arms race, as well as new risks of escalation in a potential conflict between India and Pakistan, especially as India is also increasing in size and improving the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal,” wrote FAS analyst Eliana Johns.
It is not surprising, given Pakistan’s secrecy regarding its nuclear program, that evidence of the existence of nuclear-armed JF-17s is somewhat circumstantial. Pakistan’s current nuclear attack aircraft are the 1960s Mirage V, armed with nuclear bombs, and the Mirage III, which was tested with the Ra’ad cruise missile, which can be armed with nuclear or conventional warheads. And an in-flight JF-17 was recently photographed carrying what appears to be a Ra’ad missile.
However, the Pakistani Air Force has at least 130 JF-17 Thunder, a joint project between Pakistan and China that created a combatant this is equivalent for US F-16s (Pakistan also operates 75 F-16s). The aircraft, designated FC-1 Xiaolong (“Fierce Dragon”) in Chinese service, first flew in 2003.
Suspicions that the JF-17 was armed with Ra’ad missiles were mostly speculative until a photo surfaced recently. “During rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade (which was later cancelled), an image emerged of a JF-17 Thunder Block II carrying what was reported to be a Ra’ad ALCM,” according to the FAS. “Remarkably, this was the first time such a configuration had been observed in public.”
The Federation of American Scientists “was able to purchase the original image” and compared Ra’ad mounted on JF-17 with previous images. One question was which version of the Ra’ad was installed on the JF-17. O Ra’ad I (also known as Hatf-8) is a subsonic air-launched cruise missile with an estimated range of more than 200 miles and matches other models such as Europe’s Storm Shadow, according to defense website CSIS Missile Threat. The newer Ra’ad II reportedly has a range of nearly 400 miles. Pakistan is also developing the Taimoor, an anti-ship version of the Ra’ad.
Using tools such as Photoshop Vanishing Point to analyze the images, the FAS concluded that the JF-17 was armed with the former Ra’ad I. If true, this would put several targets in western and northern India within range of missiles from nuclear or conventional cruise. .
“There are several air bases in Pakistan located close to the border,” Johns told Business Insider. “The aircraft would be capable of flying to dispersal bases within Pakistan’s borders to approach potential targets within India, at a distance of 350 to 600 kilometers, if desired.”
There remains considerable uncertainty about the Ra’ad’s exact capabilities. “Observing the differences between the Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles raises some questions,” the FAS noted. “How did Pakistan manage to almost double the range of the Ra’ad from about 350 kilometers to 550 kilometers and then to 600 kilometers for the latest version, without noticeably changing the size of the missile to carry more fuel? The answer could be that the Ra’ad-II engine design is more efficient, construction components are made of lighter materials, or the payload has been reduced.”
So, for now, Pakistan’s air-launched cruise missile capability will remain a mystery. “It is unclear whether any of the Ra’ad systems have been deployed, but this may simply be a question of when rather than if,” the FAS said. “Once deployed, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan will also continue to maintain a gravitational nuclear bomb capability for its aircraft or transition to just standalone cruise missiles.”
And although the JF-17 is a joint Sino-Pakistani plane, Johns doubts China will try to stop Pakistan from turning it into a nuclear attack plane. “China and Pakistan have enjoyed a long-standing economic and technical partnership,” Johns said. “It is suspected that Pakistan received a design for its first nuclear device from China. The JF-17s were not built for a nuclear mission in the Chinese air force. However, Pakistan appears to have been preparing it for this capability since The Mirage III and V aircraft are aging.”
Pakistan’s leading delivery system for its estimated 170 nuclear weapons will continue to be ballistic missiles, which include at least six models of road rockets. But extending the reach of Pakistan’s aerial nuclear weapons will only exacerbate the potential for nuclear war. Both Pakistan and India are already developing multiple warhead, or MIRV, versions of their ballistic missiles, and Pakistan is working on short-range, dual-use ballistic missiles. India and Pakistan have fought four wars – and numerous border clashes – since the Indian subcontinent was divided in 1947. In 2019, Pakistan made veiled statements. nuclear threats after Indian planes bombed Kashmiri militant bases in Pakistan.
“This context presents an even greater need for transparency and understanding about the quality and intentions behind states’ nuclear programs to avoid mischaracterization and misunderstandings,” Johns concluded.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He holds a master’s degree in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him Twitter It is LinkedIn.
Read the original article at Business Insider
