Donald Trump’s rise suddenly seems inevitable

Even before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, American politics was in turmoil. But after last week’s dramatic developments, the situation is turning in ways few could have predicted. Even as President Joe Biden grows weaker by the day, Trump appears to be gaining unstoppable momentum. According to internal Democratic polls, Biden is losing ground to Trump in 14 key states, including the five that Biden won in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His numbers are shaky in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire after his disastrous debate performance.

The Democratic Party remains very divided, with growing fears among its base that, in light of the debate, Biden is not in a position to defeat Trump and that it leaves other Democrats at the polls in November also vulnerable. Voices are growing within the Party calling for Biden to step aside, with senior party officials like Rep. Adam Schiff of California openly arguing that “a second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundations of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the The president can defeat Donald Trump in November.” Biden is fighting back, but he is struggling to convince his own party of his suitability for the top job.

The Republican Party Convention

His opponent, meanwhile, basks in the glory of a convention where his former critics are now gathering to anoint him as the party’s candidate in a more formal way. All those like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who until a few months ago targeted Trump in the Republican primaries, have now ended up unequivocally supporting him. Trump with a bandage on his ears and his supporters chanting “Fight, fight, fight!” at the Republican National Convention is a powerful image for a nation that just days ago was debating the suitability of a candidate who incited the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

The confusion in the Republican Party became apparent when J.D. Vance, a former Never Trumper who in 2016 wondered if Trump could be “America’s Hitler,” was confirmed as the Republican Party’s vice presidential nominee. He faced racist attacks from far-right commentators because of his wife’s Indian heritage. Advocates of the “Make America Great Again” movement have difficulty reconciling Vance’s multicultural family with his core anti-immigration agenda.

Fundamental Challenges

Political polarization in the US has led to some fundamental challenges facing both Republicans and Democrats. The demonization of the other side has led to a situation where, even after an assassination attempt, the vitriol continues to flow and there is no attempt at reconciliation.

While the theme of this week’s Republican convention is about unity, there is no place in today’s Republican base for those who have a vision for America different from Trump’s. Any challenge to Trump has to do with challenging the party, since the former president guaranteed that the Republican Party today reflects his views more than a broad organization of tents.

After the assassination attempt on Trump, Vance wrote: “Today is not just an isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. assassination attempt. “Trump’s own role in the deterioration of the political climate in the US has been conveniently forgotten by his supporters.

Although President Biden last week called on Americans to control the political debate, arguing that “[It] should never be a battlefield and, God forbid, a killing field”, and warning that “no matter how strong our convictions, we must never fall into violence”, is not readily apparent if anyone is listening. of Trump to explore meaning The sense of grievance and persecution felt by Central America has thwarted any attempt by the Biden administration and Democrats in general to craft a political narrative that might shift momentum in their favor. has become even more difficult. The image of a defiant former president with blood smeared on his face contrasts sharply with a weak and clumsy Biden, unable to articulate a coherent thought.

November is still far away. Even one day is a long time in politics. The Democratic Party could still regroup and pose a serious challenge to Trump. But there is no denying the fact that the last two weeks have fundamentally altered the US presidential elections and will leave a strong mark on American politics, regardless of which way the political winds blow in the coming days.

(Harsh V Pant is Vice President, Studies and Foreign Policy at ORF.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author