Limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees could reduce the projected economic damage by two-thirds, the authors said.
New Delhi:
Warming the planet by 3 degrees Celsius could cost the world up to 10% of its GDP, new research has found.
It also concluded that the poorest tropical countries could suffer the worst effects – up to 17% loss of GDP.
The study – led by ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and published in the journal Nature Climate Change – suggested that around half of the predicted global economic damage could be related to extreme heat, with heat waves being the most impactful among the extreme events analyzed.
“Impacts are most severe in the Global South and highest in Africa and the Middle East, where higher initial temperatures make countries particularly vulnerable to further warming,” the authors wrote.
The researchers also found that the cost of climate change increased around the world after accounting for changes in rainfall and temperatures that occur over a short period of time in a given location.
“If we take into account that warmer years also bring changes in rainfall and temperature variability, it turns out that the estimated impact of rising temperatures is worse than previously thought,” said doctoral researcher and economist Paul Waidelich of ETH Zurich and lead author of the study. the study.
Limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius could reduce predicted economic damage by two-thirds, researchers have found.
“Some people still say the world cannot afford rapid decarbonization, but the global economy will also suffer the impacts of climate change,” said Sonia Seneviratne, co-author of the study and vice-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Work. . Group I.
For the study, researchers used 33 global climate models and analyzed climate indicators related to greenhouse gas emissions and income growth for the period 1850-2100. Indicators included mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and extreme precipitation.
The authors acknowledged that substantial uncertainties remain when projecting the cost impacts of climate change.
They stated that the uncertainties are mainly “socio-economic” – how long the impacts persist and to what extent society can adapt.
They added that the total cost of climate change is likely “considerably higher” as the study did not include non-economic impacts, droughts, sea level rise and climate tipping points.
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