TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s industrial production likely fell in June, reversing gains made the previous month, led by the suspension of some car production, a Reuters poll found on Friday.
Retail sales increased last month, while employment data is likely to remain stable throughout the month, according to the survey.
A series of economic data will be released ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day monetary meeting, which ends on Wednesday.
The central bank is expected to debate whether to raise interest rates and provide details on how it plans to reduce its huge bond purchases.
Industrial production is expected to fall 4.8% in June from the previous month, the survey of 18 analysts showed on Friday, following a 3.6% increase in May.
“Declines in semiconductor manufacturing equipment production have continued and the impact of the automotive certification misconduct issue will likely be felt in transportation machinery production,” analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities wrote in a note.
Next week’s data also includes retail sales, which were likely up 3.2% in June from a year earlier, following revised 2.8 growth in May. Economists expect sales of household appliances such as air conditioners and summer clothing to have performed solidly due to the high temperatures.
The Ministry of Commerce will announce industrial production and retail sales at 8:50 am on Wednesday 31 July (23:50 GMT Tuesday).
Japan’s unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 2.6% in June and the jobs-to-applicants ratio was also expected to remain unchanged at 1.24 last month, the survey found.
Employment data will be released at 8:30 am this Tuesday.
Japan’s economy shrank more than expected in the first quarter, clouding prospects for a fragile recovery.
(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Stephen Coates)
