A historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine US elections has now given his opinion on the fight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections”, makes his predictions based on his “13 keys to the White House”.
The method consists of 13 true or false questions, and if six or more keys go against the party in power, the 77-year-old American University historian predicts its defeat. If less than six were against, he would win.
The keys evaluate several factors, including the holder’s economic performance, social stability and charisma. Through careful analysis covering historical data dating back to the era of former US President Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has devised a predictive model that transcends the conventional methods used by traditional psephologists.
“13 Keys to the White House” by Allan Lichtman
From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory over George HW Bush, Allan Lichtman correctly predicted crucial US elections.
The 13 keys to the White House designed by him are as follows:
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than in previous midterm elections.
Nomination Contest: There is no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
Task: The incumbent president represents the incumbent party.
Third Party Factor: There are no third-party or independent campaigns of note.
Short-Term Economic Stability: The economy does not face recession during the election period.
Long-Term Economic Growth: Real economic growth per capita equals or exceeds the average growth of the two previous terms.
Policy change: The current administration promotes important changes in national policy.
Social stability: There is no prolonged social unrest throughout the period.
Scandal-free: The current administration remains free of major scandals.
Foreign/military accidents: There are no significant failures in foreign or military affairs under the current administration.
Foreign/military triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.
Charm Holder: The incumbent party candidate has charisma or enjoys the status of a national hero.
Challenger Appeal: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, who will win the US polls?
Allan Lichtman currently favors US Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump. He told News Nation that he believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
Democrats, with Harris the presumptive nominee after Joe Biden dropped out of the re-election race, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to their prediction. These include a primary contest, short-term savings, long-term savings, policy change, no scandals, and no challenging charisma.
“Right now, Democrats have lost three keys” in switching to Harris, he told News Nation.
He said Democrats have lost the key to “party mandate” due to huge losses in the 2022 midterm elections. He also said Harris has lost the keys to “charisma” and “incumbency.”
I plan to make my official prediction in August, after the Democratic convention.
See my review below on 13 Keys Tracker about where the Keys are NOW. Please listen to our show LIVE on 25–24, linked in the comments below, where we break down each key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW-Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
According to his prediction model, Democrats, however, would have to lose three more keys before he could predict a Harris defeat. But he says that’s not likely to happen.
He said he plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.
This story originally appeared on Ndtv.com read the full story
