Two strikes on militant leaders risk inflaming a Middle East on edge

Tel Aviv, Israel — The attack on two senior militant leaders in two Middle East capitals within hours of each other – with each attack attributed to Israel – risks shaking the region at a critical time.

The attacks come as international mediators are working to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire that would end the devastating war in Gaza and free hostages. Intense diplomatic efforts are also underway to ease tensions between Israel and Hezbollah after months of cross-border fighting.

The murder of Hamas top leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the strike against Hezbollah’s top commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut could derail those arduous attempts to deactivate a Middle Eastern powder keg. Iran has also threatened to respond following the attack on its territory, which could drag the region into an all-out war.

Here’s a look at the possible consequences of the attacks:

Haniyeh’s assassination could lead Hamas to withdraw from ceasefire negotiations It is mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, although it has not yet commented on the issue.

But given Haniyeh’s role, a senior Egyptian official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said the assassination will most likely have an impact, calling it “a reckless act.”

“Haniyeh was the main link with the (Hamas) leaders inside Gaza and with other Palestinian factions,” said the official, who met with the Hamas leader several times during the talks. “He was the one we met face to face and talked about the ceasefire.”

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the conversations with the media.

Prime Minister of Qatar Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani condemned the attacks.

“How can mediation succeed when one party murders the other party’s negotiator?” he wrote on social media platform X.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he did not want to speculate on the effect, but the events renewed the “imperative to achieve the ceasefire,” which he said they are working toward daily.

Hezbollah has said it will stop firing on Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued that military pressure will prompt Hamas to accept a deal, but previous assassinations of senior figures do not appear to increase the chances of reaching a deal.

People in Gaza expressed sadness and shock at Haniyeh’s killing and worried that a ceasefire agreement was slipping away.

“By killing Haniyeh, they are destroying everything,” said Nour Abu Salam, a displaced Palestinian. “They don’t want peace. “They don’t want a deal.”

The increasingly desperate families of hostages held in Gaza He urged that his loved ones be released.

“I am not interested in this murder or that murder, I am interested in the return of my son and the rest of the hostages, safe and sound, home,” said Dani Miran, whose son Omri, 46, was kidnapped in Kibbutz Nahal Oz on October 7.

The attacks also raised alarm among some diplomats working to calm tensions in the region.

“The events in Tehran and Beirut push the entire Middle East into a devastating regional war,” said one Western diplomat.

The diplomat, whose government has engaged in concerted diplomacy to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah but is not directly involved in a ceasefire or hostage negotiations, called Haniyeh’s killing a “serious event” that “almost He has killed Israel.” “A possible ceasefire in Gaza, given its timing and location.

He said Haniyeh’s assassination inside Tehran while attending the inauguration of an Iranian president “will force Tehran to respond.”

The killing in Tehran is not the first time Israel has been blamed for a targeted attack on Iranian soil, but it is one of the most brazen, said Menachem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, although it vowed to kill all Hamas leaders during the October 7 attacks. Merhavy believes it is unlikely that Iran will respond directly to Israel, such as with the bombardment of 300 rockets in April after an alleged Israeli attack in Syria that killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian consular building.

He believes Iran is more likely to send its response through Hezbollah.

“Iran knows that its ability to harm Israel is much more significant from Lebanon,” Merhavy said.

The location of Haniyeh’s murder was as important as the attack itself, he said.

“The message was to Iran and its representatives: if you thought you were protected in Tehran, we can communicate with you there too,” Merhavy said. “Reconsider your relations with Tehran, because they cannot protect you on your own soil.”

Although Haniyeh’s name has more international recognition, the attack on Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur, if successful, is “much more important from a functional point of view,” said Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs at the University from Tel Aviv and former military man. intelligence officer.

He said Shukur was involved in the day-to-day management of Hezbollah attacks against Israel, including, according to Israel, the rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 young men on Saturday. Israel said its attack in Beirut on Tuesday killed him, but Hezbollah has not confirmed this.

“If Hezbollah is considering how to act or respond, one of the main questions is how they are going to manage a war without Shukur,” Milshtein said.

Others said that Shukur, if he is really killed, will be easily replaced.

“Hezbollah has a large number of commanders and leaders, and killing 1, 10 or 500 will not change the equation,” said Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics.

Gerges said Haniyeh is a much more symbolic leader and is far removed from day-to-day operations in Gaza.

“Although the assassination of Haniyeh is a painful blow for Hamas, it will make no difference in the military confrontation between Israel and Hamas,” says Gerges.

He noted that Israel has a long history of assassinations of leaders of Palestinian groupsBut those strikes have little impact as leaders are quickly replaced.