BEIRUT– the militant Palestinian group Hamas has a track record of quickly and smoothly replacing fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh The killing in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes as Hamas has been under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza began nearly 10 months ago following the group’s attack on southern Israel.
“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in accordance with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group’s political bureau until his death. His the deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli attack in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri’s position remained empty since his death.
The group’s Shura council, the main advisory body, is expected to meet soon, probably after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The composition of the council is kept secret, but it represents the group’s regional chapters, in Gaza, the West Bank and the diaspora, and those in prison.
One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer due to the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances and, with it, his good offices with Iran.
Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
“It will not be easy,” said al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies.
The new political leader of Hamas will have to decide whether to continue with the military option and essentially become a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader who can offer political compromises, an unlikely option at this stage.
Hugh Lovatt, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Haniyeh’s assassination will likely “strengthen hardliners within the movement and cause Hamas to adopt hardline strategies and move away from diplomacy and politics”.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have deteriorated over his support for the Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet him.
But Mashaal has good relations with Turkey and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who led the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for Haniyeh’s killing.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful figure of Hamas who is leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.
Al-Hajja He is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent exiled leader originally from Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran and Turkey. He was the first leader to speak out after the attack on Haniyeh.
He said Haniyeh’s killing shows that “our options (with Israel) are blood and resistance,” not talks or negotiations.
“As much as we are pained by Haniyeh’s assassination, we reassure the nation, our option in Hamas and the resistance is to continue with a clear strategy… that does not deviate from the martyrdom of one or ten leaders,” al-Hayya said, speaking from Tehran, Jabarin was standing next to him.
After years of frosty relations with the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” over Hamas’ support of the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during the Syrian conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began to mend its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya led a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met with Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, Türkiye and Hezbollah.
“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides did not see his leadership as problematic,” al-Masri said.
The role of the group’s leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas allies outside the Palestinian territories and the selection is likely to be influenced by the group’s decisions in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any election will have to be temporary until political bureau elections that were supposed to take place this year but were derailed by the war.
The meeting of Hamas leaders may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted about the election.
A third possible contender, al-Masri said, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief and is considered close to Mashaal.
With ceasefire talks faltering, Israel’s strategy so far appeared to have left the group with a few options: surrender or continue the war.
It’s not just about Sinwar, Lovatt said, but rather about building an internal consensus between leaders in Gaza and those outside.
Haniyeh’s assassination and the blow to prospects for a ceasefire will likely favor more radical elements within the group, Lovatt added.
The war in Gaza began on October 7 after the Hamas attack that killed about 1,200 people. The group also took another 250 people hostage.
Israel’s retaliatory operation has destroyed entire Gaza neighborhoods and forced around 80% of the population to flee their homes. More than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
This story originally appeared on ABCNews.go.com read the full story
