IPL 2024: Why MI’s loss is good news for RCBs’ playoff chances?

With over 50 games played in IPL 2024, no team has qualified for the playoffs and no team is out of the race yet. Mumbai Indians (MI) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB)’s playoff chances are hanging by a thread after Sunrisers Hyderabad defeated Rajasthan Royals by one run on Thursday. Furthermore, MI continued their dismal campaign in IPL 2024 after suffering a 24-run defeat against Kolkata Knight Riders on Friday at home. After their eighth defeat in 11 games, five-time champions MI are now on the brink of elimination.

The Hardik Pandya-led team will need a lot of results to finish in the top four.

Meanwhile, MI’s heartbreaking defeat has brought some confidence into the RCB camp considering that Mumbai can reach a maximum of 12 points if they win their remaining three matches, which is scary.

Remaining MI games

May 6: vs SRH, Wankhede Stadium

May 11: vs KKR, Eden Gardens

May 17: vs LSG, Wankhede Stadium

Mathematically, MI is not yet eliminated from the competition and also has a remote chance of qualifying.

Firstly, Mumbai need to win all their remaining games to stay in the fight.

RR and KKR are already in the lead with 16 and 14 points respectively and are far from MI’s reach. Technically, MI would need RR and KKR to win all their remaining games to pave the way for them.

The winner of the SRH vs LSG clash on May 8 will move to 14 points from the current 12.

The winner of the SRH vs LSG game will need to win the remaining three matches and collect at least 16 points. The winner of this match will also need to win the remaining three matches.

The loser of the game must also lose the next three games and end the season with 12 points.

Finally, none of the teams outside the top four must exceed 12 points.

In this scenario, Mumbai can be level with the other five teams on 12 points each and would need a significant increase in NRR to move up the ladder and seal fourth place in the standings.

RCB, on the other hand, are currently at the bottom of the IPL 2024 points table with just three wins from 10 games.

However, they appear to be in a better position than MI after winning two consecutive away games against SRH and GT.

Despite the initial setbacks this season, RCB still has a mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs. The recovery work begins at home against a struggling GT on Saturday and RCB need to make the most of the game.

RCB remaining games

May 4: vs GT, Bengaluru

May 9: vs PBKS, Dharamsala

May 12: vs DC, Bengaluru

May 18: vs CSK, Bengaluru

Like every other team, which is in the bottom half of the points table, RCB also needs to win the remaining four matches and will hopefully take advantage of the home advantage with three more matches to be played at Chinnaswamy.

However, for RCB to qualify for the IPL 2024 playoffs, the simple math is to bet on the top three (RR, KKR and any of SRH/LSG) to win as many games as possible, while the next six teams above them they only lose so many so that RCB can finish above them in the standings. Here are some of the possible ways this can be achieved.

RCB would like the winner of the SRH vs LSG clash on May 8 to win all the remaining matches to cement their place in at least three.

They also want the loser of the SRH vs LSG game to lose the next three games and be stuck on 12 points.

MI are unlikely to win more than two of their four remaining league games.

GT and PBKS are not expected to win more than two of the four remaining championship games.

CSK and DC are unlikely to win more than one of their remaining league games.

RR and KKR must win at least three of their remaining four league games.

In short, RCB should expect all of the above permutations to go their way, with the above six teams suffering heavy defeats, while the Royal Challengers themselves should notch up sizeable victories to secure the fourth qualifying spot for the IPL 2024 playoffs. .