Explained: How Chennai Super Kings could miss out on IPL 2024 playoff spot

Newly led by Ruturaj Gaikwad, the Chennai Super Kings face a tough task ahead as they attempt to qualify for the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL) playoffs and hope to retain the title they last won under MS Dhoni. Currently ranked third in the points table, CSK have their fate in their hands but their next match will be against a hungry Royal Challengers Bengaluru side who have won five games in a row. Already with 14 points, CSK is guaranteed progression if they win. But if they lose, things could go either way. (IPL 2024 Points Table)

Kolkata Knight Riders and Rajasthan Royals are the two sides that have qualified for the playoffs, while the remaining two spots are being contested between Sunrisers Hyderabad, Chennai Super Kings, Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Delhi Capitals and Lucknow Super Giants.

DC and LSG are in the race only mathematically, while the playoff battle is quite real for SRH, CSK and RCB.

How CSK could miss out on a place in IPL 2024 playoffs:

Condition 1: Facing RCB in the final league match of the season, CSK would need to avoid an 18-run defeat if they managed to get 200 runs on the scoreboard. Even a 17-run defeat would keep them ahead of RCB in terms of Net Run Rate. But, a loss by 18 or more runs would see RCB knock them out for a spot in the top 4. Then, CSK’s fate would be in SRH’s hands.

A similar scenario would occur if RCB manages to pull off a win over CSK with 11 balls to spare in case they chase 201 runs.

Condition 2: If CSK loses by more than 18 runs or concedes defeat with 11 balls remaining (in case of total 200 runs and target 201 runs), they can still qualify for the playoffs. But for that to happen, SRH would need to lose both of their remaining matches in the league campaign.

Such a scenario would see SRH remain with 14 points in the standings, so the remaining two spots in the playoffs will be decided between RCB, CSK and them via NRR. CSK would need to hope that their NRR remains higher than SRH in this case. Otherwise, they would be knocked out.