Before heading out to enjoy an afternoon of toboggans and jet skis, Pat Kelsey urged that there be no overreactions to his Louisville men’s basketball team’s dominant exhibition tour of the Bahamas.
That’s easier said than done, considering how impressive the Cardinals looked during their two convincing wins (against inferior competition) in the Baha Mar Hoops Summer League and how low the bar was for the program’s two worst seasons in modern history under former head coach Kenny Payne.
If ever there was a time for unbridled optimism, it is now. Kelsey just doesn’t want the hype to go to her players’ heads.
“Guys will look at their phones and people will say they’re the best thing since sliced bread and they’re the ’84 Lakers and stuff like that,” he said. “We’re going to be really good. We’re not good yet; we have a long, long, long way to go.”
It is in that spirit that we begin the second edition of The Courier Journal’s Louisville men’s basketball mailbag, playing little devil’s advocate:
It calms me down thinking that this team will run the table – James Nold Jr.
Well, for starters, that hasn’t happened since 1976.
Second, as Kelsey pointed out, there is a long, long way to go.
Louisville’s non-conference schedule is daunting and there are several opportunities for the Cards to fall short of these absurd expectations. The good news is that two of those games are at home, against Tennessee and Ole Miss, and Kelsey’s veteran squad appears ready for any challenge; including trying to beat the arch rival Kentucky at Rupp Arena for the first time since 2008.
But there’s also the daunting task of winning three games in as many days against a Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis field that includes Arizona, Davidson, Gonzaga, Indiana, Oklahoma, Providence and West Virginia. The ACC game won’t be a walk in the park either.
For the record, college basketball analytics guru Bart Torvik’s very early projections for 2024-25 have U of L finish Year 1 of the Kelsey era with a 16-12 record (10-10 ACC) – excluding the three Battle 4 Atlantis games. Meanwhile, in last month’s bracketology updates, both CBS Sports and ESPN had the cards among the top four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament field.
After seeing how far ahead Louisville was on both sides of the court in the Bahamas, I think Torvik’s projection is off by several wins, especially when you consider he is a sub-10 point underdog in the games his formulas say he has less than a 50% chance of winning. You have every right to feel confident heading into the season; just know that shots will rarely fall and stops will pile up like they did against Bahamas Select and the University of Calgary.
Which guys impressed you the most over the summer? -Jeff Byrne
This question is a holdover from the first mailbag. Without having seen a training session at the time, I thought I would have a better answer for you after the exhibition tour.
Yes, but that comes with a caveat: each fellow had a moment against the Bahamians or the Canadians. In most cases, it was both.
As for who stood out from the rest, I certainly didn’t expect Kasean Pryor to go 6 of 11 from 3-point range and for the team’s only freshman, Khani Rooths, to blend in (in a good way) among the mostly seniors and fifth-year players. year.
Terrence Edwards Jr., J’Vonne Hadley, and Chucky Hepburn were as solid as advertised. Koren Johnson provided a nice spark off the bench. James Scott and Noah Waterman made an impact while playing through injuries.
If I had to pick one, though, it would be Aboubacar Traore, who finished with the highest plus-minus rating of the trip (+71) despite scoring just 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 42 minutes between the two. games. The Ivory Coast native lived up to Kelsey’s status as “one of the most productive players in college basketball” when he officially joined Louisville from Long Beach State in May.
Traoré had a triple-double against the Bahamas Select, scoring 11 points, seven rebounds and six assists, then had another eight, seven and four, respectively, against Calgary. And when he needed to get vertical to contest a shot, he displayed a level of athleticism far beyond his 6-foot-5 frame that made Kelsey believe he’s capable of defending 1 through 5. Tag him as a contributor key and a fan favorite.
Does Pat Kelsey feel confident in our guards delivering the ball behind Chucky Hepburn? -Daniel Bird
Kelsey didn’t specifically address this during her Bahamas trip, but I think the answer is yes for several reasons.
First, their five-elimination offense relies on spacing the court and dissecting defenses with cuts and passes rather than beating opponents off the dribble. Most of the time, guys drive to create photos for others, and don’t seek to get theirs; therefore, the court’s vision is as important as control. Louisville’s 60 assists on 80 goals scored in two games is promising in that regard, regardless of the level of competition.
Taking a more individualized approach, Johnson made some eye-catching moves during the run and finished the trip with a team-high 12 assists against four turnovers. Edwards was the primary initiator during James Madison’s historic 32-4 run last season. Hadley, Pryor and Traore were among those responsible for getting the ball up the court; and Reyne Smith, who spent the last three years playing in Charleston, knows the system better than anyone.
We’ll get a better idea of where the backcourt depth is when Tennessee and reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler visits KFC Yum! Center. But what we saw in the Bahamas was a solid foundation on which to build.
What do you think the Cards’ base defense will be this year? -Ralph Smock
Kelsey said Louisville will be a half-court team “99.9%” of the time. Getting back in transition will be a key point of emphasis because the Cards’ quick, long-range offense will make them susceptible to quick attacks if they are beaten on the glass.
Hepburn is considered one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, which means he will likely take the lead on the opposition’s biggest perimeter threat. Against Calgary, it was Nate Petrone, who played primarily at 2.
Look for Hepburn to set the pace with ball pressure when faced with another point guard trying to initiate. The U of L roster is full of versatile defenders – its biggest weakness is the lack of a traditional 5 – so Kelsey should be confident on blitz screens knowing that guys can switch if needed and the holes will be filled at the second level.
In the post, Kelsey relies on a “short man” to help and be the last line of defense when the opposition cuts or clears a path to the basket. This is where guys like Pryor, Rooths, Scott, Traore, Waterman and Frank Anselem-Ibe will be crucial.
Contact Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on the X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared in the Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville Basketball Roster Analysis After Pat Kelsey’s Strong Debut
