FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Arkansas basketball had a fatal flaw in the Eric Musselman era.
For all the Razorbacks’ accomplishments in five seasons with Musselman at the helm — including two trips to the Elite Eight — Arkansas never found a rhythm from long range. The Hogs were one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country in Musselman’s final three seasons and never ranked above 172 nationally in the all-important statistic.
A revamped roster and new coach will try to get the offense back on track this winter. John Calipari finalized his roster last week with the return of Trevon Brazile, giving Arkansas nine scholarship players. Brazile is the only returnee, adding five transfers and three incoming freshmen.
But will the Razorbacks have enough shooting to keep pace with schools with Final Four aspirations? Here’s a look at what recent history tells us about the teams making it to college basketball’s biggest stage and how Arkansas basketball compares heading into the season.
Three-point shooting and the Final Four
In the last five NCAA Tournaments, no team has shot better than 34.5% in three tournaments in one season and reached the Final Four. Only two teams have fallen below the 35% threshold, with NC State and San Diego State representing the two exceptions in the last two tournaments.
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The last 20 teams to reach the Final Four averaged 36.9% from three. Of the five national champions in that span, 2024 UConn (35.8%) had the worst 3-point shooting, while 2021 Baylor (41.3%) led the pack.
But percentage is just one piece of the puzzle, with absolute volume being another important factor. Excluding the 2020-21 season, when games were still being canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 11 of the last 16 Final Four teams have made at least 300 threes in their respective seasons. The average number for a Final Four team at that time was 330.1.
How does Arkansas compare?
Based on the statistics above, a fair basis for Final Four aspirations is a 35% clip and at least 300 3-pointers made.
The six Hogs who played college basketball last season combined to shoot 35.2 percent from three. This number meets our guidelines, but they were only combined for 126 brands, which is less than half of our benchmark.
Johnell Davis carried the load in both stats, making 58 threes at a 41.4% rate last season. He is the only Hog who has made more than 30 threes in 2023-24. Trevon Brazile (35.3%) and Zvonimir Ivišić (37.5%) were efficient as low-volume shooters.
Of the three high school recruits, Boogie Fland is considered the best shooter. According to 247sports, Fland made 30% of his shots from downtown in the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, where he was willing to settle for difficult shots. Karter Knox and Billy Richmond could become elite offensive players if they develop their outside touch.
Reasons for optimism
On the surface, 3-point shooting appears to be an issue for Calipari in his first season with the Hogs. Improvements must be made across the squad, but there are reasons for an increase in numbers.
Fland could be the key. He should arrive in Fayetteville and immediately become an outside threat. Richmond and Knox should also be capable from 3-point range. Three freshmen at Kentucky last year — Rob Dillingham, Reed Shephard and Justin Edwards — combined to make 170 long-range shots under Calipari. It would be a huge boost for Arkansas if Fland, Richmond and Knox can get close to that mark.
As for veterans, it’s easy to imagine a raise for Brazile, Ivišić and DJ Wagner. Brazile will be a full season removed from his serious knee injury, while Ivišić only attempted 16 threes last year. Wagner was 29.2% from long range as a freshman. That number must increase if he wants to be the starting point guard.
Does Arkansas basketball have enough shots to reach the Final Four? For now, the Hogs feel a little miscast, but marginal improvement and a surprise freshman could be enough to push the Razorbacks into more favorable territory.
This article originally appeared in the Fort Smith Times Record: Does John Calipari Arkansas basketball have enough 3-point shooting?
