After ten seasons of the four-team College Football Playoff, the college football postseason is expanding to a 12-team format. The Oregon Ducks have made the playoffs once in the four-team era, after going 11-1 in the 2014 regular season before losing to Ohio State in that year’s national championship game.
Now, with 12 spots up for grabs in the expanded playoff, the regular season will be more forgiving and a second loss won’t necessarily be the end of it for either team. The College Football Playoff Committee never selected a two-loss team in the four-team era, but now we can see two- and three-loss teams eyeing the postseason.
On Friday, 247Sports published an article by Brad Crawford listing the teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff if they finished the season with three losses. Oregon is listed, with its three hypothetical losses coming against Ohio State, Michigan and Ohio State once again in the Big Ten title game.
As Crawford points out, it’s unlikely the Ducks will have a chance to play in the Big Ten Championship with regular-season losses to the Buckeyes and Wolverines, but if they find themselves in the title game with two losses, I don’t see how the Big Ten Championship is not a do-or-die game for Oregon.
While 12 teams in the College Football Playoff seems like a big jump from four, I don’t think the change will be as drastic as we might hope. Two losing teams will meet in the Playoffs for the first time, but a team with three losses is overkill. Every game will still matter, and if the Ducks end the season with three losses, I don’t see them making the Playoffs. They will have to win the games that count.
