It is more than fair to suggest that even the biggest Billy Napier fans must have reservations about his future at the University of Florida beyond the 2024 season.
What his UF football program has looked like over the past two years, which has had many Willie Taggart-like moments of an operation not being buttoned up, gave many Gators pause.
Until Steve Spurrierthe iconic coach paid to be an ambassador for the school, publicly admitted three months ago that he wondered what the Napier team were doing in certain game situations.
That’s on top of their 11-14 record, only the second losing mark by a UF coach in the post-World War II era (Raimundo Lobo was 13-24-2 from 1946-49).
It’s how Napier teams tend to self-destruct at game-deciding moments, which partially explains a 2-4 record in SEC games decided by a touchdown or less. Going nail-biting last year to Arkansas and Missouri as part of a five-game losing streak to end a 5-7 season put his job security in doubt.
The dilemma for Florida AD Scott Stricklinwho hired Napier and fired his predecessor Dan Mullen after four years between 34 and 15, that’s how much patience he will have with Napier as he prepares to face the toughest schedule of his tenure.
With 2023 opponents South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Missouri being replaced by Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas and Texas A&M – along with Miami and UCF in non-conference games – it’s hard to find more than six wins when Georgia, Tennessee, Florida State and LSU are still to be navigated.
If UF goes 6-6 with a reliable veteran quarterback Graham Mertz as a primary starter and promising freshman DJ Lagway gets meaningful shots and shows progress, which could be enough to buy Napier another season.
It’s true that .500 isn’t Florida’s standard and a lot could depend on how competitive the Gators are in defeat. But unless UF has a losing season or doesn’t look ascendant, Napier should probably have a full season with Lagway running the offense.
Landing three big transfers last month for striker JAson Zandamela (USC), E receiverLijhah Badger (Arizona State) and cornerback Cormani McClain (Colorado) is a good boost from an optical standpoint. Still, much depends on Napier delivering a program that appears to be a College Football Playoff contender by 2025.
If Napier can’t produce and leaves this year, then you have to wonder if Lagway will head into the transfer portal without giving the new manager a chance to convince him to stay.
After three consecutive coaches didn’t last more than four years, which hasn’t happened in Florida since the 1920s, the Gators are yearning for a football program that can be nationally relevant again. So far, much of Napier’s tenure has been a weekly referendum on his job security.
Frankly, it’s a question of whether Stricklin and the Florida administration will have the decision to support Napier as the program continues to fall far short of its potential.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared in the Florida Times-Union: It’s difficult to gauge how long the Gators will wait for Napier to revive the football program
