This article was first published in Ute Insiders newsletterer. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox every Wednesday night.
With the start of Big 12 media days in Las Vegas – moving from its usual location in Dallas for two years – in just over a month, the win totals for the 2024 season have been released.
Utah has the highest number, with win total set at 9.5, and Houston has the fewest in the 16-team conference with four wins.
Here are five takeaways from the Big 12 win total set by Vegas.
A favorable schedule for Utah
The Utes have charted a favorable schedule in their inaugural Big 12 season.
Utah doesn’t leave the Beehive State until September 21, opening the season with Southern Utah on August 29 before playing Baylor in a non-conference contest – the series was scheduled before the Utes joined the Big 12 and both teams agreed to keep it as a non-conference game in 2024 – then head north to face Utah State in Logan.
Staying within Utah’s boundaries throughout the nonconference period — something the Utes haven’t done since 2019 — is an advantage for Kyle Whittingham’s team.
In conference games, Utah avoids some of the expected Big 12 title contenders – Kansas State and Kansas – and has four conference games against teams with a projected win total of 5.5 or less (Colorado, Arizona State, BYU and Houston).
However, the Utes will be tested early, opening Big 12 play in Stillwater, Oklahoma, against Oklahoma State before returning to Salt Lake City to face Arizona.
The Cowboys went to the Big 12 championship game last season and return quarterback Alan Bowman (3,460 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2023) and running back Ollie Gordon II, who won the Doak Walker Award, given to the best running back. back of the country, along with 19 other starters.
It’s a little puzzling that Oklahoma State’s win total is 7.5 and the Cowboys have just the seventh-best odds to win the Big 12.
Arizona is one of the most intriguing storylines in next year’s Big 12. Jedd Fisch left Tucson for Seattle after revitalizing the program, but his offensive stars didn’t follow suit. Quarterback Noah Fifita (2,869 yards, 25 TDs) and star receiver Tetairoa McMillan (1,402 yards, 10 TDs) remained in the wilderness under new coach Brent Brennan. Can they maintain Arizona’s sky-high offense from last season?
There was a lot of roster turnover – 29 outgoing transfers, 21 incoming transfers – but keeping Fifita and McMillan is huge for the Wildcats.
If Utah can get past Oklahoma State and Arizona unscathed and start the season 5-0, it will have overcome two of its biggest obstacles this season.
Low for the buffaloes
The Colorado Buffaloes, led by Deion Sanders, were the most talked about team in college football last season, drawing attention from the moment “Coach Prime” started the program from scratch with a record number of transfers — both out as well as within the program.
An NFL Hall of Fame legend taking over the Power Five program and coaching them to a 3-0 record to start the season with two thrilling victories meant Boulder became the center of the college football world.
ESPN’s “College GameDay” and Fox’s “Big Noon Kickoff” established themselves in Colorado, but after hot starts, the show has come back down to earth.
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was running for his life behind a shaky offensive line that allowed 56 sacks and Colorado’s defense was one of the worst in the country, allowing 453.3 yards per game.
Can Deion Sanders right the ship in his second year in Boulder? So far, he’s used the same playbook — 42 inbound transfers and 41 outbound transfers, per 247Sports, including a rebuilt offensive line.
The Buffaloes lost talented cornerback Cormani McClain and running back Dylan Edwards, but gained several other high-profile players, including eight who were rated four-star transfers by 247Sports.
Will Sanders’ plan work this time? The Buffaloes have talent at some key positions, but can they perform well as a team?
Vegas is skeptical, setting the win total at 5.5.
Utes are among the favorites
Prognosticators are high on the Utes, setting their regular season win total at 9.5.
As mentioned above, the schedule explains why the line was set so high, but the biggest factor is the return of Cam Rising at quarterback as the Utes regain the heartbeat of their team and someone who threw for 3,034 yards and 26 touchdowns. in 2022. After last year’s abysmal offensive showing – 98th in Division I football in points per game (23.2), 92nd in total yards per game (348.4) and 117th in passing yards per game (165 .8) – Rising should restore Utah’s offense to what it was in 2021 and 2022.
Much of Utah’s season depends on Rising, who returns to the field after missing last season. Rising has its most talented class of receivers yet – Money Parks, Dorian Singer and Damien Alford – with tight ends Brant Kuithe and emerging talent Landen King.
Utah doesn’t have a true complete running back, but will roll with a combination of Micah Bernard, Jaylon Glover, Mike Mitchell and Dijon Stanley, with Bernard taking the lead.
The big question is the offensive line, which replaces three starting positions – guard Keaton Bills, tackle Sataoa Laumea and center Kolinu’u Faaiu. Utah has depth at the position — Johnny Maea, Jaren Kump, Tanoa Togiai, Zereoue Williams and Caleb Lomu could step in — but may need an offensive lineman transfer before the start of fall camp.
Defensively, the Utes return a lot of production from last year’s team, which allowed just 19.31 points per game last year, but the players they need to replace contributed a lot last season – defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki. Georgia Tech transfer Kenan Johnson is expected to fill the cornerback spot, replacing Miles Battle and JaTravis Broughton.
Will BYU bowl?
Transitions to Power Five conferences are difficult.
After making the jump from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, Utah went through some of the same growing pains the Cougars are experiencing.
The Utes went 8-5 in their first season in the Pac-12 — and were one step away from making the conference championship due to USC sanctions that made them ineligible for the postseason — but had two consecutive losing seasons in the following two years. .
The quality of Utah’s recruiting classes continued to rise, and by their fourth year in the Pac-12, the Utes had the talent to compete and had won 10 consecutive seasons, as well as two conference championships in that span.
In their second year in the Big 12, are the Cougars about to turn the corner or will they have back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2003-2004?
Vegas set BYU’s win total at 4.5, second-to-last in the Big 12, and the Cougars’ Big 12 title odds are second-to-last or last, depending on which sportsbooks you look at.
BYU’s offense ranked 118th in total yards per game (309.8) and 99th in points per game (23.1).
The quarterback situation is uncertain, and the battle between Jake Retzlaff, Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon and McCae Hillstead will stretch into the fall. Those options don’t inspire much confidence in the Cougars returning to the dominant quarterback play they’ve enjoyed in the past this season.
The offensive line needs to improve, as do the Cougars’ running backs, but whoever is the starting quarterback has great weapons to throw to if given enough time — Darius Lassiter, Chase Roberts and Kody Epps.
Defensively, the Cougars struggled last season, ranking 106th in yards allowed per game (417.7) and 96th points allowed per game (29.8).
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill brought in Weber State linebacker Jack Kelly, who could make a considerable impact in his first season in Provo, and landed defensive line transfer defensive tackle Danny Saili. Otherwise, BYU brings back much of last year’s defense, which will need improvement for the Cougars to become bowl eligible.
Kansas State is a great contender
In win totals, odds of winning the Big 12 and power rankings, the team right behind Utah — or in some cases, the favorite to win — is Kansas State.
Although the Utes and Wildcats won’t face each other in the regular season, Kansas State could be the team Utah faces in the Big 12 championship — if the Utes can get there.
It all starts with quarterback Avery Johnson, who has high expectations after playing eight games, starting the Pop-Tarts Bowl and leading Kansas State to a 28-19 victory.
DJ Giddens, who ranked 18th in the country in rushing yards per game, and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards form a talented backfield behind a veteran offensive line.
Defensively, the Wildcats return six starters from a defense that ranked third in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game (372.5) and second in points allowed (21).
Total of 12 major wins (via Circa Sports)
-
Utah: 9.5
-
Kansas State: 9
-
Kansas: 8
-
Texas Tech: 8
-
Arizona: 7.5
-
Iowa State: 7.5
-
UCF: 7.5
-
Oklahoma State: 7.5
-
TCU: 7.5
-
West Virginia: 6.5
-
Colorado: 5.5
-
Cincinnati: 5.5
-
Baylor: 5
-
Arizona State: 4.5
-
BYU: 4.5
-
Houston: 4
In case you missed
The Runnin’ Utes made a splash in the transfer portal when East Carolina forward Ezra Ausar announced he is transferring to Utah. The four-star transfer, according to 247Sports, averaged 11.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game for the Pirates. It’s a major move for the Utes after Branden Carlson graduated and Keba Keita transferred to BYU this off-season.
Of the file
Extra points
-
What the new ESPN SP+ rankings tell us about BYU, Utah and Utah State (Deseret News)
-
What former Utah AD Chris Hill said about a historic NCAA deal that paves the way for schools to pay players directly (Deseret News)
-
What financial impact could the new NCAA deal have on Utah? (Deseret News)
