Louisville Football should expect to be among the top 25 teams when preseason rankings are released in the coming months.
Jeff Brohm’s debut as his alma mater’s football coach put the program back on the national stage for the first time in nearly a decade.
“They weren’t a team that really forced the attention or the national spotlight on them,” said ESPN college football reporter David Hale. “Last year, especially with Notre Dame winning, that changed a lot.”
Louisville had only beaten Notre Dame once before their 33-20 home victory over the Fighting Irish.
The bar has been raised inside the Cardinals building, but external expectations have also risen. According to ESPN FPI Ratings, Louisville has the third-best odds to win the ACC (12%). The Seminoles have the best odds of repeating as conference champions at 26.2%, followed by Clemson (19.3%), which finished sixth in the league standings.
U of L prepared for the challenge by hitting the transfer portal again, bringing in 13th-class classified in the country, by 247Sports. Cardinals high school recruiting class ranks 38thth nationally, with five of the players arriving in January.
Louisville opens the season at home for the first time since 2020 and will look to get off to a strong start against Austin Peay.
Here are three numbers you should know ahead of the season:
81
According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, Louisville is eighth nationally in returning defensive production at 81%. That includes not only the six Cardinals players who played 500 or more snaps, but also the five defensive backs they added in the transfer portal.
defensive linemen Ashton Gillotte It is Mason Reiger are ranked third and eighth, respectively, among the highest-rated returning edge rushers in the ACC, according to Pro Football Focus. Gillotte was also the only ACC player to record 10 or more tackles for loss (13) and sacks (11), while also totaling 10 run stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Harvard Transfer Thor Griffith, who arrived on campus this month, has the ACC’s top-graded defensive tackles heading into the fall. Florida international transfer Jordan Guerad occupies fourth place.
U of L secondary strengthened by returning cornerback Quincy Riley. He allowed just 23 completions on 63 targets, the sixth-lowest completion rate among FBS teams (36.5%). His QB Allowed Rating (8.7) also ranks in the top five among ACC returning defenders.
TJ Quinn leads Cardinals linebackers as the team’s leading tackler in 2023. His 92 tackles are fourth-most among ACC returning defensive players.
7.9
ESPN’s FPI ratings project Louisville’s win-loss record at 7.9-4.3 despite the Cardinals’ 10-win season a year ago. It’s the sixth-best projected record among conference teams, with no one projected to win 10 games.
Ranked 38thth nationally and fifth in the ACC, Louisville’s strength of schedule is much tougher than it is in 2023 and plays a major role in the lower projected number. The Cardinals have road games at Notre Dame, Clemson and rival Kentucky this year after going 9-11 away from their home stadium the past three seasons. A home game against SMU should not be taken lightly either. ACC newcomers are ranked 25thth in ESPN’s FPI rankings.
But winning at least two of those games puts the Cardinals in a good position to make the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. ESPN gives U of L an 18.3% chance of accomplishing the feat, which is third-highest in the conference behind Florida State (35.9%) and Clemson (26.9%).
7.6
Last year, Caullin Lacy averaged 7.6 receptions per game for South Alabama. He ranked sixth among FBS pass catchers and is highest among returning ACC receivers after Virginia’s Malik Washington (9.2) became a sixth-round NFL draft pick. Lacy also has the second-best receiving grade of returning ACC receivers (85.0) behind Miami’s Xavier Restrepo (89.0).
Although Lacy started in the slot during the spring game, versatility will be key for Louisville’s receivers. The fifth-year veteran and 2025 NFL Draft prospect also has the potential to be the Cardinals’ go-to receiver after Jamari Thrash leaves for the NFL.
Contact Louisville football, women’s basketball and baseball writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared in the Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville Football 2024 vs ACC: Jeff Brohm’s Year 2 Numbers to Know
