The first week of preseason is here and we’re getting closer to peak draft season! With news from training camp, preseason games, injury updates and off-field drama, players’ ADPs are constantly changing. Knowing the latest trends in ADP can make the difference between capturing your favorite players or getting attacked!
Until the end of the draft season, I will bring you weekly updates on ADP risers and fallers. See whose hype is rising and whether or not we should accept it, and which players are rising in ADP, but no in my rankings?
RISER: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
The sticker price of Daniels’ ADP increase may seem aggressive, but it is very justified. You’ll be hard-pressed to find negative news about Daniels as he continues to excel in training camp with an endless highlight reel of long runs and deep bombs. Despite the Commanders’ past struggles, Daniels enters a strong situation with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and rookies Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott.
Daniels has upside, an arsenal of weapons and an offensive coordinator known for aerial attacks. Daniels will play in this week’s preseason game and it’s possible he could rise even higher with a strong performance.
He’s rising my ratings? Yes with trust.
Admittedly, rookie ADPs are seeing natural inflation following the rookie performances of CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson (in limited action). But with the depth at quarterback this year, picking Daniels as a top-12 quarterback is a pretty low risk. Its few red flags are overcome by a solid, fast floor and an offense that must increase volume to compensate for a weak defense.
RISER: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
The rise of Mostert’s ADP was inevitable. While it’s hard to count out a 32-year-old running back with a history of injuries, Mostert is coming off a career season, finishing as the overall RB2 in half-PPR leagues and leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
Despite this success, Mostert is well behind teammate De’Von Achane. Achane is expected to see an increase in touches, but Miami’s running back group should continue to operate as a committee and Mostert’s ADP will continue to climb during draft season.
He’s rising my ratings? NO… but listen to me.
I’m very pro-Mostert and very comfortable drafting him at value. Miami’s offense could actually produce two top-10 running backs and Mostert’s presence is why I forego drafting Achane. However, when I compare Mostert to other running backs in non-committee roles, I tend to lean toward a younger, three-position back.
Mostert is still a strong option, but target him within reason.
RISER: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
I’ll be honest – I was a little surprised to see McBride’s upward-trending ADP. With all the MHJ hype, I was expecting a slight drop in ADP for McBride. A full season with Kyler Murray should instill more confidence in his production, but the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. makes McBride the de facto second look. This is not necessarily a problem.
When it comes to tight ends, we want guys who are the first or second look for their team and serve as strong threats in the red zone. We still need to see an increase in McBride’s red zone production, but his goals should remain strong, meriting an increase in ADP.
He’s rising my ratings? NOT GOOD.
McBride is my TE4 and will remain in that position until the end of draft season. While there is some wiggle room in his overall rankings compared to other positions, he’s unlikely to see significant movement for me. He simply doesn’t offer the touchdown equity that Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews do.
FALLER: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert’s ADP was already in a precarious position, but with the news of his plantar fascia injury, his ADP is steadily dropping. Herbert has challenges ahead this season with the loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and a heavy outlook from new head coach Jim Harbaugh, which could benefit the team as a whole but likely depresses Herbert’s fantasy value.
Adding the prospect of a potentially long-term injury raises a lot of red flags for Herbert. While the Chargers expect Herbert to be ready for Week 1, fantasy managers should remain cautious.
He’s coming in my ratings? YES.
It’s not common for preseason injuries to carry over into the regular season. In 2023, Joe Burrow suffered a preseason injury that lasted the entire start of the season and significantly affected his fantasy value.
Herbert was already a player I actively avoided in drafts, and this injury won’t do him any favors in my eyes.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Brooks’ downfall is logical and not particularly alarming. Coach Dave Canales announced that Brooks will not play any preseason games and the the plan is to have it ready for Week 3 or 4. A potential four-game absence for a rookie running back who will likely need some preparation time is significant.
That’s it very different from Breece Hall’s situation in 2023.
Brooks will have value in the second half of the season. He offers a similar skill set to Rachaad White, who thrived last year in Canales’ offense, finishing as the overall RB4 in PPR despite having just six rushing touchdowns and fewer than 1,000 rushing yards.
He’s coming in my ratings? Begrudgingly, YES.
While I still recommend targeting Brooks and truly believe in his upside, you should draft him at a lower ADP and as your RB3. Before Canales’ announcement, I aggressively ranked Brooks at RB22. But the reality is, you can’t start your fantasy season without two healthy, starting running backs — and Brooks won’t be either of them in Week 1.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Suspension fear is causing Addison’s ADP to drop significantly, but that’s not the only factor making Addison’s ADP volatile. We still have no indication whether Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy will start at quarterback, and unlike Daniels, McCarthy’s true upside in the NFL offense is a bit of a mystery.
Addison will also face a target reduction when TJ Hockenson returns from injury. If Addison faces an early-season suspension, it will shorten his time off Hockenson and reduce his overall value.
Addison is a top-notch player, but there is significant inherent risk in signing him.
He’s coming in my ratings? ABSOLUTELY.
Drafting Addison was already a struggle. When you add ambiguity around a possible suspension, there are a lot of things that can go wrong. Addison will likely continue to fall in my rankings until we have more clarity on her legal status.
