When I started writing this article, I promise I didn’t intend to make a list filled exclusively with players from the 2022 draft class. Although, considering I still have a candle for Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson, I may have a slight obsession with the 2022 class as one all.
In fact, it’s pure coincidence that four third-year players have significant increases in their 2024 ADP and should have career years to justify it…but, is it really a coincidence?
In recent years, we have been blessed with newcomers who have emerged immediately – Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. We were spoiled! But before these sensational rookie escapes, we would look for third-year escapes. Don’t get tired of the recent rookie success; the third-year breakup is still very real. Nico Collins proved this in 2023.
This year, we have several players who have seen an increase in their ADP due to their huge breakout potential. Let’s discuss what we need to see from these players for them to return at their current draft position.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
To be clear, this list is not intended to dissuade you from signing any of these players. It is to help you understand the type of production required and the level of risk associated with producing it to its maximum potential limit. No player exemplifies this better in my eyes than Drake London.
Like fantasy football manager, there is absolutely nothing anyone can say to dissuade me from writing London. Like a fantasy analyst, the reality is that we are asking for the best scenario for London; We’re really asking Kirk Cousins to recreate a Justin Jefferson-Lite in Atlanta.
In the first two years of his career, London failed to reach 1,000 yards and had a total of six touchdowns. The lack of production has been understandable with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Despite these struggles, London has shown elite potential and Cousins is a significant upgrade at defender. The question is, can Cousins bring out the real big play, target the pig in London and make those 10 receptions and 172-yard performances a regular occurrence?
Once again, we are asking a lot. London’s ADP rose for the start of Round 3 and could continue to rise. We’re drawing it on the ceiling, but the ceiling has potential for the Sistine Chapel.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Just like London, Wilson’s inability to rise to superstar status in his young career is not his fault. It’s not uncommon for wide receivers to deal with mediocrity for much of their career and to say Wilson dealt with mediocrity is an understatement. But Aaron Rodgers is healthy and expectations are high after a 168-target year in 2023.
Combine the overall increase in ADP for receivers with the anticipation of Rodgers’ return and Wilson will be drafted directly behind AJ Brown – a receiver who has finished in the top 10 for two consecutive years. Wilson has a borderline ADP in the first round and will need a career year to make up for it. He needs to see an increase in receptions, yards and touchdowns to justify such an aggressive ADP.
Wilson is the unquestioned target on the Jets’ offense and has surpassed 1,000 in each of his first two seasons despite poor quarterback play. But, his ADP is a ceiling play, largely dependent on Rodgers’ increased opportunities in the red zone. He will also need to maintain his target share with the addition of Mike Williams, who was just activated on PUP.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
While Olave hasn’t faced the same level of quarterback struggles as the aforementioned receivers, consistency in targets has been a struggle thus far in his career. Combine inconsistent targets with a lack of touchdowns and the result is a receiver who simply can’t reach top-12 production. That’s a problem when you’re being drafted as a WR1. Olave has very similar profiles to a player like Terry McClaurin in situation and production – both clear WR1s with limited ceiling due to quarterback inconsistency and lack of touchdowns. For reference, McLaurin’s best finish was WR14 in 2022.
While London and Wilson are being drafted at their potential ceiling with associated quarterback upgrades, Olave has a boosted ADP but remains tied to a quarterback who has consistently struggled with red zone production.
Olave must also face the rise of Rashid Shaheed. While new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could increase Santos’ productivity as a whole, a lot is working against Olave to achieve career numbers and justify his ADP.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
The 2022 receivers aren’t the only ones looking to make an aggressive leap in 2024. White figures to be a Raiders RB1 with Josh Jacobs in Green Bay.
Is it fair to say you should have a career year where you were never a starter? Probably no. But in White’s case, I’ll allow it because he’s in the third year of his career and his ADP continues to rise as people realize he’s locked in as the Raiders’ leader.
Unlike receivers, White’s ADP is not extremely aggressive. But there is the factor of the unknown with White. We have a small sample size to analyze with the 2023 Whites. Jacobs suffered an injury and missed the last four games of the season. During the final games, White took the lead on defense and it was the RB13 in averaging half PPR points per game with two games with over 100 yards rushing. White also had the most rushing attempts and third-most rushing yards of any running back in that span.
But we must be cautious with small samples. Ironically, White’s backup – Alexander Mattison – is the example of small samples not translating into a full workload. White could also provide third-down work for rookie Dylan Laube, and goal-line opportunities could be minimal if the Raiders’ offense struggles as a whole.
