We are almost at the end of April. Fantasy Baseball rankings aren’t completely meaningful yet, but they’re getting close. You have my permission to look at these rankings, analyze the flow of numbers, consider what’s what. And it’s time to start figuring out who might be the right answer for the new season.
The focus today will be on the hitters. We’ll work on the pitchers later.
Are Elly De La Cruz and Mike Trout the right answers? It’s possible, maybe probable. And I associate the two because they were on my list of polarizing hitters before the season, and they are also two players I never considered signing. If Elly and Trout keep killing it, I’ll be left with nothing but FOMO.
De La Cruz ranks first in all 5×5 logic calculators, slashing .313/.412/.651 with seven home runs and 15 steals. He’s still striking out about a third of the time, and his plate discipline stats have only slightly improved. But De La Cruz has increased his walk rate by about 5% and still crushes the ball when he makes contact. His hard-hit rate has increased and he is hitting the ball in the air more often.
Player development is not always linear, but the human mind craves order and assignment. While there are still a lot of swings and misses in Elly’s game, at least he’s chasing fewer pitches outside the zone. And when he makes contact, you can hear the ball screaming – see all those Baseball Savant sliders painted red and pinned to red. We’re doing the Yahoo Friends & Family Start Fresh Draft for Monday, and De La Cruz will go straight to the first round. Heck, he could be a top-five pick.
Trout is also off to a good start, although that’s not a eureka moment for me. Mike Trout is always a good baseball player when he is healthy. His OPS+ over the past four years has been a robust 164; this year it’s at 160. It’s not like his 10-homer month tilts the world on its axis.
Trout’s bar is tilted toward power – he’s hitting .237 right now with a .321 OBP and .598 slugging. The biggest surprise is Trout’s willingness to run away; he stole five bases after managing just six total hits over the previous four years. New coach Ron Washington wants an aggressive team and Trout is following suit take those uncovered bases and proactively grab the extra base when the ball is in play.
Trout’s raw speed was never in question, of course. Your sprint speed remains in the 90th percentile. But previous manager Phil Nevin wanted his players to avoid stolen bases, and with Trout, perhaps it was a targeted attempt to keep him healthy. According to Washington’s numbers, acting conservatively is not a safe safeguard; trust your instincts and athleticism and go play against your opponents.
Early trout statistics show some interesting trends. He’s walking a little less, striking out less. His BABIP has been comically unlucky (.206), although a drop in his serious hit rate explains some of that. Baseball Savant suggests his average should be 43 points higher. Trout is getting more out of his swings, with his highest contact rate in four years.
The preseason look of the Angels’ roster scared me, but the Halos might be better than I expected. They currently rank 16th in runs per game, right around league average. That’s not an incentive, of course, but perhaps it’s not a drain either. They are beating the March projection so far.
Trout’s final fantasy ranking will depend on two things – how healthy he can stay and how many bases he wants to steal. He hasn’t reached 140 games since 2018, and over the past three seasons, he’s played in just 48% of his teams’ games. That’s a trend I’m not prepared to ignore for a player in his age-32 season. If I drafted Trout, I would quietly test the trade market by saying I’m looking to “move an outfielder” and see if my opponent wanted to focus on Trout.
As for some of the other right answers:
– Marcell Ozuna currently ranks third in cumulative value, batting .365 with 18 runs, nine homers and 29 RBI. In the last 365 games, he has been a devastating hitter, batting .304 with 98 runs, 47 home runs and 127 RBI. Somehow, the fantasy market ignored Ozuna all spring; His global ADP was well outside the top 100.
How do we reconcile this market smell? Ozuna was a DH-lockup in some leagues, okay. His 2023 comeback season was overloaded with production, which may have skewed perception. He’s in his 30s and his career seemed in decline before last year, that’s fair. But Pop has always been real, he’s in the middle of the best lineup in baseball and will stock four categories. It’s possible he could be the biggest ADP destroyer of the season.
– I’m going to link Brice Turang, Jordan Westberg and Colton Cowser, as they are all young players with potential pedigree and are on the top 25 hitter page. Perhaps the screen of talented young teammates allowed these players to go unnoticed; Milwaukee’s potential buzz has always revolved around Jackson Chourio, and Baltimore’s absurd collection of rising stars is sometimes overwhelming.
With Turang, the key was to chase down early steals and hope the average remained stable. Cowser’s case quickly gained traction if you consider the early schedule — Baltimore faced five lefties in the first 10 games, which kept him down, but he quickly got Austin Hays out of the way after that (and Hays is now injured). Westberg will hit some bad pitches, but what’s notable is how often he puts them in play – he only hits 19.4% of the time, and your hard hit profile is a dream.
You need a clear conclusion on these guys, and here’s my decision: Cowser is going to be great all year long, I think this Westberg breakout is real even if regression is inevitable, and I’m going to trust Turang on the strength of his steals. ball and defense. (which marks his place in the lineup).
