The NFL Draft is a challenging exercise and one of those Nobody Knows Nothing events. We all accept this. But it’s also time to accept that NFL teams are getting smarter with their imperfect guesses.
The format of the 2024 Draft, with three rounds underway, clearly reflects this.
My task here is to wrap up rounds 2-3 for fantasy football winners and losers, and we’ll get that to you in a minute. But the first thing we need to do is set your expectations in a reasonable pocket. The home run picks, the high upside picks, have all but disappeared. They went in the first round. Thursday’s first pass was dominated by the offense (mostly passing offense), and that symbolizes how much smarter NFL teams are today. The offense has more continuity from year to year, and the passing plays are obviously more critical than the running plays.
It was just five years ago when several WR stars were found in the second round: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf. And Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin, two more hits, were drafted in the third round. But this was also a draft where receivers were ignored until pick 25 (Marquise Brown). The league had a different focus at the time, and in most cases, it was a broken focus.
Today we are dealing with the market correction.
This is my roundabout way of making it clear that we need to be reasonable with Friday’s NFL Draft fantasy expectations. Some of these players will break out and some will become reliable fantasy contributors for sure. But if you think there’s a Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown hiding in the bushes, I think you’re fooling yourself. Unfortunately, this may seem silly in a few years, as so many snapshot analysis articles do. No one was writing a sonnet about Puka Nacua 12 months ago.
About the winners and losers
Almost Winners: Receivers landing in good environments
I can’t use the word “ecosystem” because Matt Harmon trademarked it about three years ago. This belongs to him. But it’s encouraging to see so many second-round receivers landing on teams where they can be relevant quickly.
Keon Coleman was the first pick on Day 2, going to a Buffalo offense that needs to distribute the targets that came from Stefon Diggs. There’s a lot of competition for the ball in Buffalo: Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel. Secondary tight end Dawson Knox isn’t going away. But Coleman’s limits and playmaking skills could make him a standout rookie, even though his critics constantly harp on his 4.61 40 time at the combine.
I’m thinking Coleman’s size (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) and catch radius make him important sometime in 2024. No, he won’t be an Opening Day fantasy starter, but neither will any of the receivers we discussed today. will check this box.
Many pundits like Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, who went with the second pick of the second round. McConkey is a tight-space coach who could quickly become Justin Herbert’s favorite target on third downs. There is very little competition for the ball in this LAC receiving room with the departure of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That said, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and new OC Greg Roman probably want to play bully ball in the AFC West, which means they’re going to hit the rock as much as humanly possible. McConkey has a good chance of getting on base as a rookie, but I doubt he can hit a home run.
Texas speed trader Adonai Mitchell felt disrespected on Friday as his name wasn’t called until Pick 52. But Mitchell should feel happy to have landed in a good position, working with a brilliant player in Shane Steichen and a rising quarterback in Antônio Richardson. The Colts could be a fantasy carnival as early as 2024, running up and down the infield lawn and showing off pinball stats. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of competition for the ball here — leading receiver Michael Pittman is a star, secondary target Josh Downs is a good player, Jonathan Taylor is a touch hog in the backfield, and Richardson will also throw a few touchdowns. In short, Mitchell’s speed should be put to good use here. Even if it’s not immediately relevant to the fantasy, it should be fun.
Fantasy Quasi-Loser: Kyren Williams’ workload
The bell cow is all but dead in the NFL these days, but we appreciate the rare instances when it appears. Williams was one of those unicorn league winners last year, an underrated fantasy pick who quickly pushed everyone else out of the way in the Rams’ backfield.
Good luck getting Blake Corum out of the way this year. Corum landed with the Rams on Friday, the 83rd overall pick. This room became much more crowded.
Williams still projects as a starter and is more versatile than Corum – and as a veteran, obviously more proven. But that could easily set up a thunder and lightning situation, with both players having games in which they get double-digit touches. Williams still deserves to be considered as a potential first-round Fantasy player, and he won’t go beyond the early second round. But if you already had Williams shares in your portfolio, Corum wasn’t the name you wanted selected.
Fantasy Choose Your Own Adventure: Roman Wilson
The Steelers have a stellar track record of picking receivers outside of the first round, and at 84th overall, Wilson fell further than expected. That said, the Steelers have a shaky quarterback room, and we saw OC Arthur Smith make a mess of a talented Atlanta offense. I expect the Steelers to profit from this value pick, even if it doesn’t happen immediately. Maybe it seems like a cop-out, but Wilson is a yes for dynasty writers and a no for season-long players.
Fantasy Loser: Ja’Lynn Polk
The Patriots are a bit like the anti-Steelers when it comes to drafting wideouts; your resume has been a mess for years. (Mention N’Keal Harry to me at your own risk). Polk faces little competition for playing time in New England — the Patriots probably had the worst at-large cap space on paper entering this week — but the quarterback’s play could be tough for much of the year, with journeyman Jacoby Brissett a possible replacement until for rookie QB Drake Maye to prepare. Polk has below-average speed and often wins with his hands and technical skills, which likely makes him a reasonable long-term pick. But he doesn’t offer many immediate fantasy advantages.
Fantasy Loser: All those lonely running backs
The NFL drafted 100 names in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, and only four of them were running backs. Four! It took a while for the league to figure out how to value running backs in the draft and in the negotiating room, but the cold days of reality have arrived. Many college running backs are still sitting on the couch, cell phone in hand. I wouldn’t wish this anxiety on anyone.
As for the defensemen who were selected, well, it’s a mixed bag. There are no automatic wins here.
Jonathan Brooks was the first quarterback called, Pick 46 for the Panthers. With full health, Brooks would have a good chance of winning Carolina’s starting spot – Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are common players. But Brooks tore his ACL last November and may not be ready to make a major contribution this year; at best, he’s a wait-and-see fantasy pick. And we can’t ignore that Carolina was the worst team in the NFL by a mile in 2023; This is not a quick fix situation. I will not proactively rank Brooks in my seasonal boards.
The Cardinals are supposed to be a young, fun offense for 2024, and Trey Benson fits that theme. James Conner, who feels he has broken into the NFL’s leather helmet, is still atop the depth chart, but Florida State’s Benson will push for instant work. Benson has some red medical ink on his file, suffering a torn ACL in 2020. Benson didn’t look bad when the Seminoles asked him to catch passes, but they didn’t ask him very often (33 career receptions). His ability as a pass blocker will determine how many NFL losses he can realistically have as a pro.
Corum’s fastest path to fantasy relevance may reach the goal; he is a physical, decisive runner who totaled 61 touchdowns (58 rushing) at Michigan. Teams are often coy with goal line plans and usage, so we’ll have to speculate on touchdown projections until we get some real action to navigate. At the very least, Corum is an interesting insurance pick for Williams officials, or a high-advantage lottery ticket for managers who don’t hire Williams. Anyone with draft capital in a Sean McVay offense, we’re curious.
MarShawn Lloyd (Pick 88) looks like a long-term play for Green Bay, who just handed the keys to the defense to Josh Jacobs. Lloyd struggled in college, but he has an NFL-friendly body for the position (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) and is capable of breakaway runs. Lloyd’s long-term upside is more interesting than his short-term relevance.
