A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that deserve closer analysis.
Yes… The numbers lie.
Garrett Crochet’s 5.97 ERA is a lie
Crochet’s 5.97 ERA is accompanied by a 2.68 SIERA, which is the third-largest gap among starters. His K-BB% (26.6) is fourth-best in the league, and only Spencer Strider finished with a higher grade last season. Crochet’s ERA hasn’t lived up to his highly impressive peripherals thanks to an inflated HR/FB% (18.9) and a LOB% (56.3) that ranks last among 81 qualified starters. Crochet’s career HR/FB is 9.0%, and his career LOB% (70.6) is well in line with the league averageso both should regress significantly.
Crochet’s surface stats show a 1-4 record and an ugly ERA, but bad luck/timing is hiding one of the league’s true pitchers in 2024. The White Sox will keep Crochet from racking up wins (he averaged just 1.57 runs of support! ), but he shouldn’t be available in 50% of Yahoo leagues.
Crochet needs to be cut into all fantasy formats.
José Altuve’s 10 RBI is a lie
Altuve has the third-highest wRC+ (186) in baseball, behind only Juan Soto and Mookie Betts. Besides Altuve, the other nine hitters who rank in the top 10 in wRC+ this season have averaged 25 RBI, so Altuve’s 10 are an outlier on the leaderboard. Situational hitting has been the culprit, as he is batting .398/.448/.727 with the bases empty, but just .200/.317/.229 with runners on base. That drops to a pitiful .105/.190/.158 with runners in scoring position, as all seven of Altuve’s home runs were solo runs. Altuve hit .314 in 258 at-bats with runners in scoring position from 2021-2023, so his slow start seems like a fluke. He boasts the highest slugging percentage (.585) of his career, so Altuve fantasy managers should have more RBI now.
The Astros are somehow in the bottom half of the league in runs scored but fourth in wRC+, so Houston hitters should see more counting stats moving forward.
Flaherty has somehow yet to record a win this season despite leading all starters in K-BB% (30.6), CSW (36.3) and SIERA (2.24). To put into perspective how dominant he has been, Flaherty has a better K-BB%, CSW, and SIERA than Spencer Strider (who easily led every category) last season. An ERA that ranks 54th among starters is masking one of the best pitchers in the league right now. Flaherty has a 30:2 K:BB proportion over the last three games and remains winless despite four quality starts on a Tigers team with one of the best records in the American League. He recorded 213 strikeouts with a 2.75 ERA in 2019, and Flaherty is playing better now. It’s incredible that he is currently rostered in only 49% of Yahoo leagues.
Don’t let the win column or middling ERA fool you – Flaherty is pitching like a star.
Brandon Nimmo’s .206 batting average is a lie
Nimmo is batting .206 despite possessing an expected BA in Top 12% in the league. He has the second largest difference between BA and xBA among all hitters in 2024. Nimmo has increased his walk rate and is hitting the ball harder than ever, posting a career-high average exit velocity that is in the top 11% in the league. Nimmo’s .250 BABIP is also well below his career mark of .330. He has strong discipline and posted a .278 batting average over the previous four seasons before this year, so the regression is coming.
Expect Nimmo to hit .270+ from here on out.
Bednar’s 11.45 ERA comes with a 2.72 SIERA, and he has the third highest difference in ERA and expected ERA among all pitchers this year. Bednar’s K-BB% (24.0) is better than last season when he posted a 2.00 ERA. Bednar’s CSW (33.3) is easily a career best, but he has already allowed the same number of home runs (three) this season as last, despite having a career-best GB% (48.5 ). Bednar’s HR/FB% (23.1) will regress to his career level (8.8%), as will his abnormally high BABIP (.367). And his job security remains, as Aroldis Chapman lost control and speed while posting a 4.64 SIERA in Pittsburgh.
Bednar has an ugly ERA after missing time in spring training due to a late injury, but his peripherals suggest he should be an elite fantasy closer in the future.
